This ASX 200 giant is up 37% in 2026. Is the pullback worth buying?

The stock has pulled back from its recent highs after a huge year.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

After racing higher for much of 2026, BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) has given back some ground.

The mining giant finished Friday at $62.25, down 2.4% for the session and 7.5% over the past week.

That leaves the stock nearly 10% below the $68.77 high it reached on 26 August.

Even after the recent weakness, BHP shares are still up around 37% in 2026 and almost 50% over the past 12 months.

So, after a quick pullback, is this a better time to buy?

Four miners discussing with each other next to mining machinery.

Image source: Getty Images

What's behind the pullback?

Some of last week's weakness came from BHP trading ex-dividend on last Thursday.

The miner declared a final dividend of 99 US cents per share after its FY26 result, with payment due on 23 September. The shares fell 3.28% on Wednesday, another 1.35% on Thursday and 2.4% on Friday.

There is also a bit happening around BHP's Western Australian iron ore business.

According to The Australian, China's Baowu Steel Group has been linked with buying a 15% to 25% stake in the Jimblebar iron ore mine.

BHP has not confirmed anything, although it did leave the door open. The company said it has "a long history of partnerships at its assets" and regularly looks at options that could create long-term value for shareholders.

The reports have also caught the attention of politicians, with some raising concerns about a Chinese state-owned group taking a stake in one of Australia's major iron ore assets.

The business still looks strong

The recent pullback in the share price doesn't really change what I like about BHP.

The company still delivered a strong FY26 result, with underlying EBITDA of around US$33 billion and attributable profit of US$9.8 billion.

What interests me most is the growing contribution from copper. It made up more than half of underlying EBITDA for the first time, which is a pretty big shift in the earnings mix.

BHP is already one of the world's largest copper producers, and management expects its project pipeline to lift production by around 40% by FY35.

This gives BHP more exposure to copper, which should benefit from growing investment in electrification, power grids and data centres.

Would I buy BHP shares?

This is where I would be a little careful.

The business is performing well, but the share price has already had a huge run and brokers aren't exactly calling it cheap.

TipRanks shows an average 12-month price target of $59.17, around 5% below Friday's close. Of the 15 recent ratings shown, 13 are holds, with one buy and one sell.

Morgan Stanley is more bullish, with a buy rating and $68 price target. Even so, that would only put the shares around 9% above their current level.

I like BHP as a long-term exposure to copper, but after a 37% rise this year, I'd prefer to wait for a slightly better entry point before buying.

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Resources Shares

Woman and man worker in quarry on excavation machine looking at a clipboard.
Resources Shares

Up 550% since listing: Is this the next big ASX copper stock?

Strong drilling has excited investors, but assays will determine its real substance.

Read more »

Numerous Australian dollar notes laid out.
Resources Shares

9 ASX mining shares going ex-dividend this week

ASX mining shares have long delivered some of the most generous dividend payout ratios of all.

Read more »

Woman and man worker in quarry on excavation machine looking at a clipboard.
Broker Notes

Up 57%! Should I still buy Rio Tinto shares today?

A leading analyst provides his forecast for Rio Tinto’s rocketing shares.

Read more »

Value spelt out in different colours with magnifying glasses.
Resources Shares

Up 20% this year, are Rio Tinto shares still good value?

Investors have enjoyed a strong run. Is there more upside ahead?

Read more »

Miner standing in front of trucks and smiling, symbolising a rising share price.
Resources Shares

This Gina Rinehart-backed ASX explorer could rise almost 300%, Morgans says

Backing from the iron ore magnate is a strong endorsement.

Read more »

Two miners laughing and having fun while using smart phone during their coffee break.
Resources Shares

Stanmore Resources to acquire Moranbah South, boosting coal resources

Stanmore Resources is set to acquire 100% of Moranbah South, significantly increasing its metallurgical coal resources and future growth options.

Read more »

Two miners at a mine site on their tablets, with mining machinery behind them.
Resources Shares

Buy, hold, sell: PLS Group, Catalyst Metals, Sandfire Resources shares

Analysts reveal their ratings and 12-month price targets on these ASX mining stocks.

Read more »

Copper balls.
Resources Shares

This ASX copper explorer is up 390% since its May IPO. Is it still a buy?

Visible copper, no grades, and a 151% day.

Read more »