WiseTech shares delivered their best month in more than a year in August, with the stock closing Monday at $40.38.
That capped an 11% monthly gain.
It also leaves WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) down 41% for the calendar year and 60% over twelve months.
A rebound of that size, after a fall of that size, deserves a careful look.
What actually happened to WiseTech shares in August
The month came in two distinct halves.
Across the first three weeks the shares surged 25%, reaching $45.47 on 25 August.
Then the FY26 result landed, and the rally lost its momentum, with the stock giving back around 11%.
Standing behind all of this was the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission executing a search warrant on the company on 19 August, which knocked roughly 10% off the shares in a single session.
The FY26 result was not the problem
The numbers themselves were quite good.
Total revenue rose 79% to US$1,395.9 million, helped enormously by the e2open acquisition, which contributed US$541.2 million on its own.
Underlying EBITDA climbed 56% to US$644.5 million and underlying net profit after tax rose 29% to US$313.5 million.
Free cash flow increased 43% to US$410.7 million, and the final fully franked dividend rose 14% to 8.8 US cents per share.
Reported EBITDA of US$558.4 million landed inside guidance but slightly below the US$569.5 million consensus, which is the immediate reason the shares fell.
Chief Executive Zubin Appoo framed the year around WiseTech's ongoing transformation:
This was a transformational year for WiseTech. We acquired e2open to expand our offerings into adjacent markets, launched our new commercial model with more than 95% of CargoWise customers now on CargoWise Value Packs, and adopted AI across our own operations.
FY27 guidance is for revenue growth of 6% to 10%, reaching US$1.48 billion to US$1.54 billion.
Underlying EBITDA is forecast to grow 12% to 21%, with margins improving to between 49% and 51%.
That is a sharp deceleration from 79% revenue growth, and it is the reason the market hesitated.
What the brokers make of WiseTech shares
The spread of price targets is extraordinary.
Morgan Stanley has a buy rating and a $70 target, implying 73% upside from Monday's close.
Morgans retained buy with $62.50, Bell Potter cut its target to $65, UBS trimmed to $56 while keeping a buy, and Citi lifted to $58.75.
Macquarie sits at $48.20, also with a buy.
At the other end, Jefferies downgraded to hold with a $45 target and JPMorgan has a hold rating with a $40 target.
The bull case and the bear case
The bull case is straightforward enough.
CargoWise remains the operating system for global freight forwarding and is used by the world's largest forwarders, including Toll and DHL.
Cost programs delivered around US$115 million in annualised savings, and margins are guided higher again in FY27.
The bear case is equally clear.
An active ACCC investigation has no defined end date, the company has cycled through leadership and board changes, and the shares have fallen 60% in a year.
Foolish takeaway
WiseTech shares look cheap against almost every analyst target.
However, one good month does not resolve a regulatory investigation and all the ongoing risks surrounding the company.
I would want the ACCC matter clarified, or two consecutive results that meet guidance, before calling this a true turnaround.
Investors who already hold have a reasonable argument in the FY26 numbers to stay put.
For everyone else, the August rebound in WiseTech shares should be treated with a bit more caution.
