WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) shares gave investors a wild ride in August. The ASX tech stock finished Monday 0.6% lower at $40.38, bringing its monthly gain to 11%.
That offered some relief after a brutal year. WiseTech shares remain down 41% year to date and 60% over the past 12 months. The big question now is whether September can extend the shaky rebound.
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Hitting the accelerator, then slamming the brakes
For much of August, it looked like WiseTech shares couldn't be stopped. During the first three weeks, the tech stock surged 25%, reaching $45.47 on 25 August. Then came the FY26 result and the rally quickly lost momentum.
Since that result, WiseTech shares have fallen around 11%, leaving them a long way from the $100 level reached almost a year ago.
The numbers themselves were hardly disastrous. WiseTech reported a 46% increase in EBITDA to US$558.4 million for the year to 30 June. That landed within management's US$550 million to US$585 million guidance range, although it fell slightly short of the US$569.5 million market forecast.
For FY27, management expects total revenue growth of 6% to 10%, reaching US$1.48 billion to US$1.54 billion. Underlying EBITDA is forecast to grow 12% to 21%, with margins improving to 49% to 51%.
The business hasn't fallen apart
That's important because the collapse in WiseTech shares hasn't simply been about deteriorating demand.
WiseTech's CargoWise platform remains a major logistics software system, used by the world's top 25 freight forwarders, including Toll and DHL. It helps freight forwarders, customs brokers and supply-chain operators manage increasingly complicated global trade.
That gives WiseTech exposure to powerful long-term trends, particularly the digitalisation of global trade and rising demand for sophisticated logistics technology.
The bigger problems have been investor confidence, governance concerns and regulatory issues.
What do brokers think about WiseTech shares?
Several brokers remain firmly in the bullish camp.
Morgans retained its buy rating with a trimmed $62.50 price target, while Morgan Stanley maintained its buy rating and $70 target. That points to a 73% upside. Bell Potter also remains bullish, despite cutting its target from $71.75 to $65.
Citi lifted its target from $55.05 to $58.75, while UBS reduced its target from $65 to $56 but retained its buy recommendation. Macquarie nudged its target up to $48.20 and also retained a buy rating.
But there is plenty of scepticism. Jefferies downgraded WiseTech shares to hold with a $45 target, while JPMorgan also has a hold rating, with a $40 target.
At $40.38, the huge gap between those valuations tells investors something important: the market remains deeply divided over WiseTech's recovery.
The August rebound is encouraging. But after such a bruising decline, Wisetech shares still have plenty to prove before investors can confidently declare the turnaround complete.
