IDP Education Ltd (ASX: IEL) shares have crashed 24% to an all-time low of $1.64 in Thursday afternoon trade.
At one point earlier this morning, the shares dropped as low as $1.55 a piece.
The global education company's shares are now down 71% for the year-to-date and 65% lower than 12 months ago.
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What happened today?
It looks like the catalyst for today's sell-off is IDP's FY26 results update, which the company posted to the ASX ahead of the market open this morning.
The company posted a steep decline in NPAT, down 74% from last year. It also announced a 11% decline in revenue and an 18% decline in adjusted NPAT.
IDP said its earnings decline was caused by weaker international student demand. This is mostly a result of ongoing policy changes and tighter migration settings in key markets.
Student Placement volumes tumbled by 27% and IELTS English Language Testing volumes dropped by 8%.
But it's not all bad news. Despite the headwinds, IDP still delivered a $32 million underlying reduction in overhead costs, exceeding its transformation target. It also continued to generate strong cash flow, bringing net debt down by 29% to $118.6 million.
IDP also launched a share buy-back program of up to $50 million, suggesting confidence in its transformation strategy.
But looking ahead to FY27, the company said it expects challenging market conditions to persist, with tighter migration and student visa policies continuing to weigh on volumes.
The company's shares also crashed in late 2025. And its dismal performance led to the stock being removed from the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) amid a reshuffle in September last year. IDP Education is now among the worst-performing shares in the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) over the past 12 months.
Investors are clearly disappointed with the update, and many have decided to sell up their shares ahead of a further downturn.
So, what can we expect next from IDP shares?
Is it time to buy in the dip? Or is more downside coming?
Some analysts said they think visa caps and declines in student volume may have bottomed out, particularly in key markets like Canada and Australia.
This suggests student placement volume could start rebounding, and it could lift revenue and the company's share price.
But there isn't much evidence of this translating to higher revenue just yet. I think we could see some adjustments to analysts and broker forecasts in the coming days as they digest the latest update.
But at the time of writing, Market Index data shows the majority of brokers have a buy rating on the ASX education shares. The $4 average target price is unchanged, which implies the shares have the potential to jump 140% higher, at the time of writing.
