Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) shares are back at levels investors have not seen for a year.
The iron ore giant is down 0.60% to $16.57 during Monday trade, putting the stock right on its 52-week low.
That extends what has been a rough run in 2026, with Fortescue shares now down around 25% since the start of the year.
The stock was trading as high as $23.13 on 14 May, so the decline from those levels is now close to 30%.
So, just how much further could Fortescue shares fall?
Let's take a closer look.
Image source: Getty Images
Why are Fortescue shares struggling?
Fortescue's FY26 result actually had a few decent numbers in it.
Revenue rose 9% to US$16.97 billion, helped by higher shipments and iron ore prices, while both operating cash flow and free cash flow moved higher.
However, statutory net profit fell 15% to US$2.86 billion, while the final fully-franked dividend dropped to 46 cents per share from 60 cents a year earlier.
There are a few other concerns hanging over the stock as well.
Fortescue is expecting higher spending in FY27, while the iron ore outlook remains difficult to read with China's property sector still weak.
Could the shares fall below $16?
Looking at the latest broker targets, I wouldn't rule it out.
TipRanks shows 11 recent analyst ratings on Fortescue, with 2 buys, 6 holds, and 3 sells.
The average 12-month price target is $17.91, which is around 8% above the current share price.
But some analysts are much more cautious.
The lowest target is $15.40 from Jarden, with Morgan Stanley close behind at $15.45. Jefferies has a $16 target, which is already below where the shares are trading today.
At the other end, RBC Capital, Macquarie, and BMO Capital each have $20 targets, around 21% above Fortescue's current price.
What would I watch from here?
Iron ore prices are probably the first thing I'd be watching.
Fortescue is still very heavily exposed to the commodity, so any further weakness could put more pressure on earnings and the share price.
I'd also keep an eye on the current 52-week low of around $16.57.
If the shares break below that level, the $15.50 area starts to come into play, especially with Jarden and Morgan Stanley already sitting around there with their price targets.
Fortescue shares are obviously a lot cheaper than they were a few months ago, but I'm not convinced the fall is over just yet.
