WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) shares finished Tuesday 3% higher at $43.35, extending their monthly gain to 25%. That's an impressive rebound, but the ASX tech stock remains 37% lower year to date and down 62% over the past 12 months.
Now, investors are looking towards 26 August, when WiseTech is due to deliver its FY26 results. The numbers could determine whether this rally has genuine legs.
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Is WiseTech's comeback gathering momentum?
The recovery in WiseTech shares since late July has been eye-catching. But the collapse has been brutal, and investors still have plenty of reasons to remain cautious.
The interesting thing is that the underlying business hasn't simply fallen apart.
WiseTech's flagship CargoWise platform remains a major logistics software solution, used by the world's top 25 freight forwarders, including Toll and DHL. The platform helps freight forwarders, customs brokers and supply-chain operators navigate increasingly complex global trade.
That leaves WiseTech exposed to powerful long-term trends, particularly the continued digitalisation of global trade and growing demand for sophisticated logistics technology.
Crucially, the sell-off hasn't primarily reflected collapsing demand for CargoWise. Investor confidence, governance concerns and regulatory issues have played a major role.
That makes next week's results particularly important.
What could WiseTech report?
Management has reaffirmed FY26 guidance for revenue of US$1.39 billion to US$1.44 billion, representing growth of 79% to 85%.
EBITDA is expected to reach US$550 million to US$585 million, which would represent growth of 44% to 53% over FY25.
If WiseTech delivers on those numbers — and provides an encouraging FY27 outlook — investors in WiseTech shares may become more willing to look past the governance drama and refocus on the company's underlying growth opportunity.
What do brokers think?
The broker community appears relatively bullish on WiseTech shares.
According to TradingView data, 11 of 14 analysts have a buy or strong-buy rating. The average price target of $60.61 implies potential upside of roughly 40% from Tuesday's close.
The most bullish target is a remarkable $114.11, suggesting potential upside of approximately 163%.
Bell Potter has a buy rating and $71.75 price target. Its analysts believe some of the headwinds weighing on WiseTech could begin to fade, particularly following the appointment of Raelene Murphy as chair.
Macquarie is also bullish, with a buy rating and $47.10 price target. The broker has suggested WiseTech could "surprise to the upside" with FY27 guidance, although tariffs and regulatory issues remain risks.
Could WiseTech shares really rebound?
The bull case for WiseTech shares is certainly becoming harder to ignore. A strong FY26 result, combined with upbeat FY27 guidance, could give investors the catalyst they've been waiting for to reassess WiseTech's battered valuation.
But this isn't a risk-free recovery story. Governance, regulatory and execution risks remain, while the company must prove that it can translate its powerful long-term growth opportunity into sustainable earnings growth.
