How much could the Telstra share price rise in the next year?

Telstra shares have dropped. Can they rebound over the next year?

The Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) share price has fallen 14% since its May 2026 peak, giving investors the chance to invest in the ASX telco share at a cheaper price. But, where do analysts think it will go in the next year?

Could Telstra keep falling to a new 52-week low? Or has the market overreacted and the business could rise from here?

Let's look at what analysts currently predict for the Telstra share price.

woman on phone

Image source: Getty Images

Expert views on the ASX telco share

According to CMC Invest, there have been nine ratings on the business within the last three months.

Of those ratings, two were a buy rating, six were a hold rating, and one was a sell rating. So, on average, those nine ratings are largely neutral.

However, the average price target does suggest potential possible gains over the next year.

A price target is where the analyst thinks the share price will be trading in 12 months from the time of the investment call. Of course, a price target is not a guaranteed return, just where analysts think the share price will trade.

According to CMC Invest, the average price target of those nine analysts is $5.06. That implies a possible rise of 5% from where it is at the time of writing.

The most optimistic price target suggests a possible rise of 14% over the next year, while the most negative price target implies a possible decline of 4%.

Can the Telstra share price justify growth?

A key factor to influence whether the ASX telco share can deliver capital growth is what happens with its earnings.

The business has guided that profit could rise in the 2027 financial year.

Telstra has guided that the business could grow its operating profit (EBITDAaL) by between 1.9% to 5.5% to a range of $8.5 billion to $8.8 billion. Meanwhile, cash earnings (EBIT) could rise by between 1.9% to 6.2% to a range of $4.75 billion to $4.95 billion.

Low single-digit growth is not likely to excite the market. However, mid-single-digit earnings growth may be enough to send the Telstra share price higher to the analysts' price target of $5.06 (or more).

According to the projection on CMC Invest and using the current Telstra share price valuation, it's valued at 22 times FY27's estimated earnings, with a potential grossed-up dividend yield of 6.3%, including franking credits.

It may not be the strongest performer within the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) over the next 12 months, but it could produce a market-beating return through a combination of capital growth and dividends.

However, there may be even better ASX share ideas out there.

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Communication Shares

woman on phone
Broker Notes

With $2.4 billion in FY26 profits, are Telstra shares a good buy today?

A leading expert delivers his outlook for Telstra shares.

Read more »

a newsboy wearing historical costume of peaked cap and braces yells into an old fashioned megaphone while holding a newspaper in one hand, a so-called newsboy of previous eras when newsboys sold newspapers on street corners.
Communication Shares

Why did Nine Entertainment shares hit a 12-month low today?

It's been a bleak day for the media company.

Read more »

A group of people look intently towards the camera as though they are very interested in the information they are hearing.
Communication Shares

Tuas FY26 results: revenue climbs, subscriber base expands

Tuas' FY26 earnings saw a 24% revenue increase and strong subscriber growth as the company invests in network expansion.

Read more »

Man holding Australian dollar notes, symbolising dividends.
Communication Shares

If I buy $6,000 of Telstra shares, how much dividend income will I receive?

Telstra could be a wise choice for dividend income in FY27.

Read more »

Smiling woman listening to music and using her phone.
Dividend Investing

Should I buy Telstra shares for passive income?

I take a closer look at what the latest dividend forecasts could mean for income investors.

Read more »

A man in his 30s holds his laptop and operates it with his other hand as he has a look of pleasant surprise on his face as though he is learning something new or finding hidden value in something on the screen.
Dividend Investing

Are Telstra shares a good buy for passive income?

The telco offers its shareholders much more than just a potential share price upside.

Read more »

Close-up of a business man's hand stacking gold coins into piles on a desktop.
Communication Shares

Is the Telstra share price a buy for its 6.25% dividend yield?

Telstra is providing a pleasing level of passive income.

Read more »

A group of market analysts sit and stand around their computers in an open-plan office environment.
Communication Shares

WIN Group increases Nine Entertainment stake past 31%

WIN Group lifts its economic interest in Nine Entertainment above 31%, strengthening its position as the broadcaster’s largest shareholder.

Read more »