TPG Telecom Ltd (ASX: TPG) shares have slumped around another 0.5% to a fresh all-time low of $3.50 each in Wednesday trade.
The telco shares are now down around 9% year to date and 36% lower than this time last year.
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What happened to TPG Telecom shares?
In November last year, TPG Telecom shares crashed around 33% in a single day in what was the largest one-day share-price fall in the company's history.
The share price fell because it traded ex-dividend for a very large capital return to shareholders.
TPG had previously sold its fibre assets and Enterprise, Government & Wholesale business to Vocus, receiving about A$4.7 billion in proceeds. It then decided to return A$3 billion of that cash to shareholders. The payment totalled A$1.61 per share.
On the ex-dividend date (13th of November), anyone buying the shares was no longer entitled to receive the A$1.61 payment. As a result, the market adjusted the share price downward by roughly the value of that distribution.
While this technically isn't bad news for investors, it did cause a complete reevaluation of TPG Telecom's share price value.
And one that the company has struggled to come back from.
The shares climbed gradually higher in the first quarter of 2026, but then tumbled again in May and into early June after the company released its first-half results, and investors became concerned about its outlook.
At the time, management reaffirmed its FY26 EBITDA guidance of $1,665 million to $1,735 million (up from $1,637 million in FY25). But, they also warned that "EBITDA delivery is anticipated to be weighted to a stronger second-half performance".
The question now is whether the company can deliver on its guidance. Can the shares stage a comeback? Or is there more downside ahead?
Here's what the experts think.
Are the shares a buy, sell, or hold?
Analyst sentiment for TPG Telecom looks to be pretty mixed right now, but there are some bullish outlooks ahead.
Market Index data shows that the majority of brokers have a hold rating on the stock. But the $3.99 average target price implies a potential 13% upside at the time of writing.
Analysts on TradingView are more bullish. The data shows that the majority (seven out of 13) have a buy or strong buy rating on TPG Telecom shares. Another five have a hold rating, and one rates the stock as a strong sell.
The average $4.02 target price implies a potential 15% upside ahead. Although some forecast that the shares have the potential to jump 31% higher to $4.60 a piece over the next 12 months.
JP Morgan upgraded its rating on the ASX 200 telecommunications shares last month. The broker has a hold rating and $3.70 target price on the shares, implying a small 6% potential upside ahead.
