Here's what brokers tip for Wesfarmers shares over the next 12 months

The conglomerate has faced several headwinds so far in 2026. Can these ease over the next year?

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Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) shares have fallen into the red in early morning trade on Tuesday.

At the time of writing, shares in the conglomerate – whose retail subsidiaries include Bunnings Warehouse, Kmart Australia, Officeworks, and Priceline – are down around 1.5% and are changing hands for $83.58 a piece.

Today's decline follows a 4% drop in the share price yesterday.

Interest rate and inflation concerns, and cost of living pressures have acted as strong headwinds for the company so far this year. 

Wesfarmers shares have been pretty volatile for the year to date, swinging anywhere between an annual low of $71.26 in mid-May and a high of $92.96 in mid-July.

The shares are now around 2% higher for the year to date, but still 7% lower than a year ago.

For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is up around 4% for the year to date, and roughly 1.5% higher than 12 months ago.

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What do brokers tip next for Wesfarmers shares?

Wesfarmers is due to announce its FY26 results on the 27th of August. 

Investors are eager to find out Wesfarmers' FY26 key group financial metrics and final dividend size. The result is expected to influence the direction of Wesfarmers shares and sentiment about the company's outlook.

Wesfarmers has already paid a fully-franked interim dividend of $1.02 per share. Consensus estimates point to a final FY26 dividend of around $2.20.

It looks like the experts are pretty bearish on the outlook for Wesfarmers shares ahead of its results announcement.

According to Market Index data, the majority of brokers have a sell rating on the conglomerate's shares. The $78.16 average target price implies a potential downside of around 7% at the time of writing.

The data is similar on TradingView. Again, the majority (nine out of 15) have a strong sell rating on the consumer discretionary shares. However, five still think the shares are a hold, and one analyst rates the stock as a buy.

The average $77.56 target price implies a downside of around 7%, at the time of writing. Although some think that the shares have the potential to fall up to 22% to $65.10 over the next 12 months.

Morgan Stanley has a sell rating and a $79 price target. The broker recently warned that the rally in consumer discretionary stocks has "run ahead of fundamentals and is unlikely to prove durable".

Alto Capital's Tony Locantro also has a sell rating. He thinks that much of Wesfarmers' quality and long-term growth outlook is already fully reflected in the current valuation. He added that future upside may be constrained by elevated market expectations.

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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