Shares in Arena REIT (ASX: ARF) have taken a beating this week after the real estate investment trust revealed one of its customers, Edge Early Learning, had asked for deferral or abatement of its rent payments from now on.
Edge, it turns out, is pursuing a "corporate restructure" of its business.
Arena shares fell from $3.28 at the close of trading last Friday to $2.20 by mid-afternoon Tuesday, with high volumes traded across Monday when the news was announced, and Tuesday. This represents a fall of 33%.
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ASX real estate shares looking cheap
Jarden analysts believe that this represents a buying opportunity, however, and have a bullish share price target on Arena, which I'll get to shortly.
First, some more details from Arena.
The trust said that Edge had paid all of its rent up until the end of July, and that the company represented about 14% of Arena's annual rental income.
Edge did not pay its rent due on 3 August, with Arena issuing it a notice of default.
Arena said regarding Edge's request:
Following consideration of Edge's request, Arena has determined not to agree to a rental deferral or abatement. Arena continues to engage in discussions with Edge regarding its lease obligations and potential pathways forward. Arena holds a pooled bank guarantee and security deposits totalling approximately $4 million from Edge securing its lease obligations. The guarantee includes cross default provisions that apply across the properties leased from Arena. Arena is actively assessing a range of options available to it as landlord to protect rental income, preserve asset value and maximise long-term outcomes for securityholders.
Arena said it would delay the release of its FY26 results, which were to be released on 12 August, and now expects to release its results during the week starting 17 August.
Serious upside tipped for this ASX real estate trust
Jarden analysts said in a research note to clients that in a worst-case scenario where Edge paid no rent at all to Arena in FY27, the latter would be valued at $2.60 per share.
They said Arena's occupancy levels were sitting at 76.7%, 2.6% lower than the previous year, but they said occupancy levels to break even were generally in the 60% to 65% range.
They also saw the company "as having a very strong balance sheet to withstand any uncertainty''.
Jarden added:
We retain our Buy rating, while our 12-month target price moves down about 7% to $3.90 on earnings and increased risk. Key downside risks are further tenant issues, rates staying higher for longer and regulatory changes affecting childcare subsidy structures or tenant profitability.
With Arena shares changing hands for $2.20, the $3.90 price target would constitute a 77% return if achieved. Arena is valued at $1.05 billion.
