BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are charging towards a fresh record, rising 1% to $63.52 on Monday. They're up 40% in 2026 and 59% over 12 months.
With the ASX mining giant just a whisker below its June all-time high, investors might be wondering whether there's still fuel in the tank.
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Iron ore keeps the cash flowing
Iron ore remains a heavyweight contributor to BHP's earnings, generating the cash flow that helps fund dividends of BHP shares and future growth.
BHP produced record iron ore volumes in FY26, while its Western Australian operations remain among the world's lowest-cost major producers.
The company is also investing in rail and port infrastructure, targeting sustainable production above 305 million tonnes a year. That's a pretty impressive machine, but BHP isn't content to simply sit back and collect the cash.
While China's steel demand could evolve as its economy matures, iron ore should remain important for infrastructure, housing and manufacturing globally.
BHP's low-cost position could help it weather weaker commodity prices when the inevitable mining-cycle wobble arrives.
Copper could be the real star
Here's where things get particularly interesting for BHP shares. The company produced around 2 million tonnes of copper in FY26 for the second consecutive year. At its latest half-year result, copper accounted for 51% of underlying EBITDA.
That could signal a much bigger transformation in BHP's earnings mix. Copper is essential for electricity grids, renewable energy, electric vehicles, data centres and the broader electrification boom.
BHP expects global copper demand to rise by around 70% by 2050. Meanwhile, declining ore grades and lengthy permitting processes could make bringing new supply online increasingly difficult.
BHP is already the world's largest copper producer and expects production to grow by around 5% annually through 2035.
Its assets and opportunities across Chile, South Australia, Argentina and the US give it several ways to benefit if copper demand takes off.
And then there's potash
BHP is also preparing to enter the potash market through its Jansen project in Canada.
Potash helps farmers improve crop yields, potentially giving BHP another long-term growth avenue as the global population expands and arable land becomes scarcer. It also adds another commodity to BHP's already diversified portfolio.
Of course, diversification doesn't make BHP immune to commodity cycles.
Iron ore, copper, coal and eventually potash all have their own supply-and-demand dynamics. Investors shouldn't assume BHP shares can simply climb forever.
What do analysts think?
Analyst sentiment is decidedly mixed. TradingView data shows 14 of 21 brokers rate BHP shares a hold. Five analysts have a strong buy rating, while two rate the stock a sell or strong sell.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) remains more bullish, reaffirming its buy rating and $67 price target. That implies around 5.5% potential upside from the current share price.
The most bullish TradingView forecast puts the share price at $92.77 in 12 months. That would represent a potential 46% gain from current levels.
