After plumbing a one-year closing low of $10.15 on 7 July, Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) shares have been staging a steady rebound.
In afternoon trade on Tuesday, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) energy provider were changing hands for $11.00 apiece. That sees the Origin Energy share price up 8.4% in less than a month.
Taking a step back, the ASX 200 energy stock remains down 6.9% since this time last year, trailing the 5.4% 12-month gains posted by the benchmark index.
Though that's not including the two fully franked dividends totalling 60 cents a share that eligible stockholders will have received over this period.
At the recent share price, this sees the Aussie energy provider trading on a fully franked trailing dividend yield of 5.5%. Taking those franking credits into account, that works out to a grossed-up yield of 7.8%.
Which brings us back to our headline question.
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Origin Energy shares: Buy, hold or sell?
Catapult Wealth's Dylan Evans recently analysed the outlook for the ASX 200 energy provider (courtesy of The Bull).
"Origin Energy is one of the major electricity retailers in Australia and a global gas supplier," he said.
Commenting on the early July cybersecurity breach, which saw around 900,000 current and former customer records compromised, Evans said, "Despite recently reporting a customer data breach, several other positive trends support holding the Origin business."
Summarising his hold recommendation on Origin Energy shares, Evans concluded:
In the absence of a peace deal or meaningful resolution in the Middle East, we expect upwards pressure on gas prices. Demand for power is expected to increase consistently in Australia and overseas, driven by electrification, data centres and population growth.
Demand for power should lead to higher electricity prices.
What's the latest from the ASX 200 energy retailer?
Origin Energy released its June quarter update on 31 July.
Addressing the elephant in the room, the company noted:
This week, Origin completed the initial phase of its review of a data security incident, confirming information from approximately 900,000 customers was accessed. The review is ongoing and the focus is on supporting affected customers. The matter remains subject to criminal investigation.
However, investors responded positively to the company's full 2026 financial year earnings estimate. Management said they expect FY 2026 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to be on the higher end of the company's guidance of $1.55 billion to $1.75 billion.
Looking to FY 2027, Origin Energy CEO Frank Calabria said, "In the year ahead, we're investing in increased drilling activity and continued optimisation activities, to support gas supply for customers and the domestic market."
Origin Energy shares closed up 0.9% on the day of the release.
