Reporting season is almost upon us, and two ASX shares will do more than most to set the tone for August.
The bulk of the market opens its books over the next four weeks.
Amongst all of that, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) and BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) are the names investors will be watching most closely.
Between them they account for a substantial slice of the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which means their results tend to shape the index return regardless of what the rest of the market delivers.
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The ASX shares that go first
CBA will release its full year results and final dividend on 12 August, whereas BHP is expected to follow with its FY26 numbers roughly a week later.
The final CBA dividend goes ex on 19 August, with payment due on or around 29 September.
Both companies are index heavyweights, so their results tend to move the broader market on the day.
That makes them a useful barometer for what the rest of reporting season might deliver.
CBA's most recent earnings result
CBA reported its half-year results for the six months to 31 December 2025 on 11 February.
In those results, cash net profit after tax came in at $5.45 billion, up 6% on the prior corresponding period. Meanwhile, the net interest margin held steady at 2.04% on an underlying basis and return on equity rose 10 basis points to 13.8%.
The Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio finished the half at 12.3%, comfortably above APRA's minimum requirement. What I found really encouraging was that loan impairment expense fell to $319 million as home loan arrears declined.
The board declared a fully franked interim dividend of $2.35 per share, equal to roughly 72% of cash profit.
Chief executive Matt Comyn said the bank's balance sheet settings "remain resilient with strong levels of capital, deposit funding and provisioning".
BHP's most recent earnings result
BHP delivered its half-year result in February, with revenue up 11% to US$27.9 billion. Underlying EBITDA rose 25% to US$15.5 billion at a margin of 58%. Copper generated record EBITDA of US$8 billion, accounting for just over half of group earnings.
The interim dividend came in at 73 US cents per share, a 46% lift on the previous half.
Its recent operational review carried a warning, though: BHP guided FY27 copper production to between 1,650 and 1,800 kilotonnes, down from 1,953 kilotonnes in FY26.
That step down is driven largely by a forecast grade decline at Escondida, where concentrator feed grade has already slipped to 0.90% from 1.02% a year earlier.
Why these ASX shares could set the tone
Morgan Stanley has flagged estimate dispersion across the ASX 300 at 10.6, up from 9.7 in February and above the 20-year average of 10.
Close to 30% of companies carry analyst forecasts that are 80 days old or more, while 53% are working from estimates of at least 50 days.
Equity strategist Chris Nicol warned that "widening dispersion suggests consensus forecasts may be becoming increasingly stale", which lifts the scope for sharp share price reactions on results day.
For CBA, the questions are margin direction and the size of the final dividend.
For BHP, it is whether the market looks through a softer FY27 copper outlook to the growth pipeline beyond it.
Given both companies together represent more than 20% of the broader ASX 200, should both results outperform expectations, investors can reasonably expect the ASX 200 to outperform accordingly.
Foolish takeaway
These two ASX shares may not tell the whole story of August for the ASX.
But given that they represent more than 20% of the market, they will tell investors plenty about the health of the banks and the miners.
Those two sectors still drive the bulk of returns on the Australian market, and that makes the second and third weeks of August worth marking in the diary.
