Up 20%, are Yancoal shares still a good buy right now?

A leading analyst provides his forecast for Yancoal's outperforming shares.

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Yancoal Australia Ltd (ASX: YAL) shares are charging higher today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) coal stock closed yesterday trading for $5.68. At the time of writing, shares are changing hands for $5.96 apiece, up 4.9%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.4% at this same time.

Yancoal shares have been strong performers in 2026, up 20.2% since market close on 31 December. That compares favourably to the more modest 0.5% gain posted by the ASX 200 over this same period.

And that's not including the 12.2 cents per share fully-franked dividend Yancoal paid eligible stockholders on 15 April.

The ASX 200 coal stock trades on a fully-franked trailing dividend yield of 3.1%.

But following these strong share price gains, is the coal miner still a buy today?

A female coal miner wearing a white hardhat and orange high-vis vest holds a lump of coal and smiles.

Image source: Getty Images

Yancoal shares: Buy, hold, or sell?

Investor Pulse's Mark Elzayed recently analysed the outlook for the resurgent coal miner (courtesy of The Bull).

"Yancoal is balancing strong fundamentals against a near term overhang," he said.

Elzayed elaborated:

In April, YAL announced it would acquire 80% of the Kestrel metallurgical coal mine in the Bowen Basin for US$2.4 billion. The acquisition is accretive over the long term, but adds leverage.

Summarising his hold recommendation on Yancoal shares, Elzayed concluded:

Diesel cost inflation threatens to push 2026 unit costs toward the top end of its guidance range. Consensus targets of about $7.02 on July 15 imply upside, but integration and coal price risks argue for holding the stock rather than adding.

What's the latest from the ASX 200 coal stock?

Yancoal reported its second-quarter (Q2 2026) results after market close on Monday.

Highlights for the three months to 30 June included a 20% quarter on quarter lift in attributable saleable coal production to 10.8 million tonnes. That presents a new quarterly production record.

The Yancoal share price also looks to be getting a lift today, with the company reporting that the average prices it received for most of its seaborne thermal coal increased by 14% to 19% over the quarter.

As for the rising diesel costs that Elzayed mentioned above, Yancoal noted:

While diesel price pressure has eased compared to early 2Q, some price uncertainty remains. We are still incurring higher prices, but the outlook for the overall impact on our 2026 operating costs has moderated.

Commenting on the company's recent US$2.4 billion acquisition, Yancoal CEO Sharif Burra said:

In April, we announced the acquisition of an 80% interest in the Kestrel Coal Mine. Adding a large, long-life asset that produces hard-coking coal at strong margins is a compelling step forward in Yancoal's growth strategy.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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