Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares have had an extraordinary first month.
Shares were issued at US$135 before listing on 12 June, and the stock climbed well above US$200, pushing the valuation above US$2 trillion.
Since then, SpaceX shares have come back down to earth. Although, the company was then fast-tracked into the NASDAQ-100 Index (NASDAQ: NDX) in early July, approximately 15 trading days after listing.
Analysts remain bullish.
For ASX investors, that matters more than most realise, because a large number of Australians now own a piece of SpaceX without having made any decision to buy it.
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Reasons to remain bullish on SpaceX shares
The core of the bull case is Starlink.
According to SpaceX's S-1 filing with the SEC, the Starlink connectivity segment generated US$11.4 billion in revenue in 2025. The segment delivered US$4.4 billion in operating income, representing year-on-year growth of 49.8% and 120.4%, respectively.
Starlink served 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries as at 31 March 2026, up from just 2.3 million in 2023.
This is a business growing at extraordinary speed with a defensible moat. Launching a satellite constellation of that scale requires launch capability that almost no competitor possesses.
The Nasdaq-100 inclusion added a further mechanical tailwind. This will force index-tracking funds worldwide to buy SpaceX regardless of any individual portfolio manager's view on valuation.
Betashares Space Industry ETF
The Betashares Space Industry ETF (ASX: RCKT) is the most direct ASX exposure.
SpaceX has already been included in RCKT following the fund's fast-track inclusion feature. This allowed it to enter the Solactive Space Industry Index far more quickly than standard timelines would permit.
SpaceX now accounts for approximately 27% of the RCKT portfolio, making it the fund's single-largest holding by a wide margin.
That concentration deserves a closer look. RCKT is no longer a diversified space economy fund in any meaningful sense.
It is now, in effect, a SpaceX fund with 28 other holdings attached, and its performance will be dominated by what SPCX does from here.
Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF
The Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF (ASX: NDQ) is where most Australians now own SpaceX without having chosen to.
NDQ is one of the most widely held ETFs in Australia, and SpaceX's Nasdaq-100 inclusion means every NDQ holder automatically gained SpaceX exposure when the index inclusion took effect.
The same applies to holders of the Vanguard MSCI International Shares ETF (ASX: VGS) and the iShares S&P 500 ETF (ASX: IVV). What's more, the millions of Australians whose superannuation funds hold international shares benchmarked against major US indices have also gained exposure.
For most investors, that exposure will be small relative to the overall portfolio.
But it exists, automatically, without any further action required.
The risk worth understanding for SpaceX shares
SpaceX is not a conventionally profitable company.
The company posted a GAAP net loss of US$4.94 billion in 2025, driven by losses in the xAI and Space divisions that offset Starlink's profitability.
A company trading above US$2 trillion with significant GAAP losses is a demanding proposition, even for investors genuinely excited by the long-term opportunity.
The mechanical index buying that has supported the share price since listing was a one-time event, not a permanent support mechanism.
Furthermore, SpaceX bonds issued shortly after the IPO have reportedly sold off to levels comparable with junk-rated borrowers.
This is despite investment-grade ratings, a warning sign that the debt market is less enthusiastic than the equity market.
Foolish Takeaway for SpaceX shares
Analysts remain bullish on SpaceX shares, and Starlink's growth justifies significant optimism.
But for ASX investors, the more important point is that ownership of SpaceX is now largely automatic rather than chosen.
RCKT holders own it heavily, at around 26% of the fund.
NDQ, VGS, and IVV holders own it passively.
Understanding how much exposure you actually have to SpaceX is perhaps a more useful exercise than debating whether to buy it.
