Consumer staples shares have performed strongly in 2026 as investors have pushed towards defensive options.
The S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Staples Index (ASX: XSJ) has risen 13% year to date.
This has far outpaced the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which is up just 0.66% in the same span.
Despite the sector performing well, ASX consumer staples stock Select Harvests Ltd (ASX: SHV) is down significantly year to date.
However, a new report from Bell Potter has indicated it could be set for a strong rebound.
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Company overview
Select Harvests is an integrated grower, processor and marketer of almonds, owning and operating farming and processing assets in Australia.
It offers a vertically integrated model with core capabilities in farming, processing and marketing.
The company operates a diversified portfolio of almond orchards as well as a state-of-the-art processing facility in Carina VIC (with capacity to process 50,000t of almonds).
In 2026, the stock has fallen 20%, however Bell Potter's latest guidance indicates it could recover in the next 12 months.
Here's what the broker had to say.
Production maintained
Bell Potter said in yesterday's report that the recent weakness in this ASX consumer staples stock is not supported by improving almond market fundamentals.
Global almond prices have risen 11% year-on-year, while a weaker Australian dollar has lifted implied Californian almond prices to A$10.55-10.60/kg.
This is above SHV's 1H26 pricing assumption of A$10.21/kg.
Despite Select Harvest shares falling around 20% since the start of 2026, the company has maintained FY26 production guidance of 28,000–31,000 tonnes, which aligns with its expected theoretical production of around 29,000 tonnes.
Bell Potter believes this suggests the market is overly focused on past operational issues rather than current fundamentals.
Taking into account the company's foreign exchange hedge position, stronger-than-expected almond price trends, and benchmark market performance, Bell Potter sees upside risk to the company's 1H26 almond price assumption.
If current market prices persist, realised prices could be closer to A$10.50–10.60/kg, providing potential upside to earnings and the share price.
Strong upside in tact for consumer staples stock
Based on this guidance, Bell Potter has retained its buy recommendation and $5.30 price target.
From current levels, this indicates an upside potential of 35%.
SHV has had a series of disappointing results in recent years, however, the fundamental drivers of the business are improving – almond prices are rising, crop input prices (fertiliser and ag-chem) have weakened from the highs and forward year water lease coverage has improved.
