It has been a tough 2026 so far for ASX 300 stock Elders Ltd (ASX: ELD).
Elders is a leading supplier of fertiliser, agricultural chemicals and animal health products to rural and regional Australia. It has strong agency positions in livestock, wool and real estate.
Year to date, its share price has fallen 21%.
For comparison, the S&P/ASX 300 (ASX:XKO) index is up 0.5% in the same period.
However after falling in 2026, the team at Bell Potter is optimistic it can recover in the next 12 months.
Here is what's behind the bullish view.
Image source: Getty Images
Mixed conditions
Bell Potter notes that conditions for Elders have been mixed since the last reporting period.
Strong livestock activity and significantly improved soil moisture across much of Australia's cropping regions have been partly offset by lower crop input prices, particularly urea.
Livestock markets remained supportive during the third quarter, with higher cattle slaughter and yardings, stronger prices for cattle, lamb, mutton, and wool, and increased wool volumes, providing a positive backdrop for Elders' agency business.
Cropping conditions have improved considerably after above-average rainfall across most of the Australian wheat belt, especially in southeastern Australia.
Soil moisture and crop health indicators have strengthened to their highest positive deviation in the past 14 years, although drier conditions are still expected in the second half of 2026.
On the downside, crop input prices have continued to soften.
Urea prices have fallen 47% from their peak and are now below pre-conflict levels, while glyphosate prices are down around 18%, which may reduce the value of Elders' crop input sales despite benefiting farmers through lower costs.
Buy recommendation for ASX 300 stock
Following share price weakness, the team at Bell Potter now views this ASX 300 stock as a buy-low candidate.
Bell Potter has a buy recommendation along with a price target of $6.45 on the company.
From yesterday's closing price of $5.38, this indicates an upside potential of 20%.
Our Buy rating unchanged. The market is pricing ELD for the effects of an El Nino, with the stock down -27% since the BOM announced the El Nino watch and the short interest >9%.
While the intensity of El Nino is not anticipated until 2HCY26e, patterns over the major winter cropping selling window appear to have been broadly positive and livestock agency trends have remained favourable, to a degree derisking the FY26e outlook.
