Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) shares closed around 0.5% higher on the first day of the new financial year, at $19.24 a piece.
Over the past 12 months, the shares have climbed 25%, but after a volatile start to the calendar year, Fortescue shares are down around 13% year to date.
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What happened to Fortescue shares in FY26?
The ASX miner's shares climbed steadily higher through the first half of FY26, ending the calendar year around 43% higher.
That strength continued through January, but then weakness in iron ore prices, broad commodity volatility, and profit-taking quickly weighed on the share price.
Over the past six months, Fortescue shares have fluctuated anywhere between $18.94 and $22.99.
Investors became quite cautious about Fortescue's outlook. And then news that conflict in the Middle East had escalated in early March dampened sentiment around the mining sector further.
At the time, many were concerned about rising costs, fears about a shortage of oil supply, and geopolitical uncertainty around conflict in the Middle East.
Ever since, Fortescue shares have fluctuated in line with the iron ore price.
Over the past month Fortescue has made headlines thanks to its new lower-grade iron ore product Fortune Fines. Reports indicate that some Chinese steelmakers have been advised not to engage with the miner about the product while commercial negotiations are still underway.
Are the ASX miner's shares a buy, sell or hold in FY27?
The experts are mixed about the outlook for Fortescue shares over the next 12 months.
Market Index data shows brokers are divided, mostly between a buy and sell rating. The $19.68 average target price does, however, imply a potential 2% upside ahead, at the time of writing.
Analysts on TradingView are more pessimistic. Out of 17 analysts, eight have a hold rating and eight have a sell or strong sell rating.
The average $19.84 target price implies a potential 3% upside at the time of writing. However, the range between the highest and lowest average target price is huge. Some tip the shares to jump 27% to $24.46. But others think they could fall 14% to $16.51 over the next 12 months, at the time of writing.
Why are the experts so reserved about the outlook for Fortescue shares?
While Fortescue has a copper footprint, the miner primarily mines and exports iron ore. This means, as we've seen throughout the second half of FY26, the miner's shares are heavily reliant on the price of iron ore. And therefore, their value is subject to any price fluctuations that the material might have.
The price of iron ore is expected to soften through late-2026. It is then forecast to gradually decline through to 2030 as supply increases and Chinese steel demand tapers off.
