S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) investors appear relieved by May's inflation print, reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) at 11:30am AEST.
In the minutes that followed that release, the ASX 200 jumped 0.2%.
Here's what we know.
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ASX 200 gains on mixed inflation print
The ABS reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.0% in the 12 months to May 2026. That's down from the 4.2% reading reported for the 12 months to April last month, likely lifting ASX 200 investor sentiment.
Housing continues to be the biggest driver of rising costs, with housing up 6.5%. Food and non-alcoholic beverages prices increased by 3.3%, with annual transport costs also up 3.3%.
One bright spot was fuel prices.
Rachael McCririck, ABS head of prices statistics, noted:
On a monthly basis, Automotive fuel prices fell 11.9% in May, after falling by 7.0% in April. These monthly falls include the impacts of the halving of the fuel excise on 1 April and lower world oil prices in recent weeks.
But ASX 200 investors aren't out of the woods yet when it comes to further potential interest rate hikes from the RBA.
Trimmed mean inflation, which takes out certain volatile items (like fuel) and is the RBA's preferred gauge, increased to 3.6% in the 12 months to May 2026. That's up from 3.4% in the 12 months to April. And it's also higher than consensus economist forecasts of a 3.5% increase in trimmed mean inflation.
What are the experts saying on RBA interest rates and the latest inflation print?
As you're likely aware, a primary concern for ASX 200 investors and mortgage holders alike is how the RBA will respond to the ongoing elevated inflation levels in Australia.
The RBA's next interest rate setting meeting takes place on 11 August.
According to Josh Gilbert, lead analyst for APAC at eToro:
The board will be watching closely, having finally hit pause after three consecutive hikes since February. Last week, it was clear that the central bank wants to step back and assess how earlier tightening is filtering through, rather than keep its foot to the floor.
The problem is that inflation is still too high, while the labour market is showing clearer signs of softening. That leaves the RBA walking a narrow path between doing enough to bring inflation back to target and doing too much damage to households and the jobs market.
VanEck head of investments and capital markets, Russel Chesler, added (quoted by the Australian Financial Review):
The RBA now faces an increasingly uncomfortable trade-off. We do not expect today's rise in trimmed mean inflation to be enough to force another hike in August 2026, but the case for easing has become harder to make.
GDP growth is weakening, unemployment has risen to 4.5%, households are running down savings buffers, and spending is already outpacing disposable income.
