The metals and mining team at Macquarie has given the global copper sector a good look and upgraded its short-term outlook for the copper price.
The analyst team is now expecting prices for the red metal to be 9% stronger this calendar year, an impressive 33% up on their previous estimates for 2027 and 14% up on their 2028 estimates.
These forecasts have flowed through into their price targets for Australia's major ASX copper miners, with a slew of upgrades announced in a recent research note to clients.
Let's see which companies they like.
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Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR)
In terms of pure-play ASX copper companies, Sandfire is Macquarie's top pick, with the analyst team keen on its diversified operating base, improving balance sheet, and growing pipeline.
Macquarie's analyst team said:
The key attraction is the combination of established production, low C1 cost performance and near-term free cash flow leverage to copper and by-product prices. Growth optionality is also improving on management's disciplined approach to M&A.
Macquarie said the company's joint venture with Havilah Resources Ltd (ASX: HAV) also added a potential long-life copper-gold development option in South Australia over the medium term.
Macquarie has a price target of $21 per share on Sandfire compared to $20.86 currently.
Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC)
The Macquarie team have an outperform rating on Capstone, saying the company offers a more leveraged exposure through its diversified Americas portfolio.
They said:
We see the key attraction as a combination of operating scale, copper beta and self funded growth, with balance sheet capacity improving; net debt reduced to US$738m at 1QCY26. The main risks remain execution at Mantoverde and Santo Domingo sanctioning (both in the 4QCY36), and input-cost inflation, but we view the risk/reward as attractive given strong growth outlook at an attractive multiple.
Macquarie has an $18 price target on Capstone shares compared to $15.41 currently.
Looking at some other companies in less detail, Macquarie has upped its price target for Aurelia Metals Ltd (ASX: AMI) from 40 cents to 43 cents. That would constitute a 38.7% return if achieved.
For Aeris Resources Ltd (ASX: AIS), Macquarie now has a price target of 73 cents, up from 70 cents. That compares to the current price of 42 cents.
Carnaby Resources Ltd (ASX: CNB) now has a price target of 80 cents, up from 70 cents, compared to 69 cents currently.
And for FireFly Metals Ltd (ASX: FFM), the price target has increased from $2.30 to $2.50, compared to $2.04 currently.
