Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) shares are in a strong phase as the company benefits from its excellent mobile network and the increasing digitalisation of the Australian economy.
As Australia's largest telco, it's in a strong position to continuing increasing subscription prices for Australians. While this may be a headwind for subscriber growth, it's certainly a tailwind for margins and the average revenue per user (ARPU).
Let's take a look at what analysts think could happen with Telstra's earnings in the years ahead considering how that could influence the Telstra share price.
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FY26
We've already seen the Telstra FY26 half-year result, which included a number of positives.
In the first-half of FY26, mobile ARPU grew by 5.1% and mobile service revenue grew by 5.6%. Overall mobile income rose by 4% to $5.8 billion and operating profit (EBITDA) grew 4% to $2.7 billion.
The company's overall total income rose 0.2% to $11.8 billion, operating profit (EBITDA) grew 4.7% to $4.4 billion, EBIT climbed 9.2% to $2 billion and earnings per share (EPS) increased 11.2% to 9.9 cents. Cash EPS grew 19.7% to 14 cents. This helped fund a 10.5% rise of the dividend per share to 10.5 cents.
According to the projection on CMC Invest, Telstra is projected to generate EPS of 20.4 cents in FY26.
That means the ASX telco share is now valued at 25x FY26's estimated earnings.
FY27
The company's net profit is expected to increase in the subsequent financial year – earnings growth would be very supportive for the Telstra share price in that year.
In the 2027 financial year, Telstra is forecast to make EPS of 22.1 cents, which would represent year-over-year growth of 8.3%. I think most ASX blue-chip businesses would be happy with that level of growth.
At the time of writing, that forecast equates to the Telstra share price being valued at 23x FY27's estimated earnings.
FY28
The final year of this series of projections is for the 2028 financial year.
According to the forecast on CMC Invest, the business is projected to generate EPS of 23.4 cents. That would represent year-over-year growth of 5.9%, which I'd describe as solid considering it would come after previous years of growth.
Using the Telstra share price at the time of writing, it's valued at 22x FY28's estimated earnings.
Is this a good time to invest at the current Telstra share price?
Analysts generally don't seem to think the ASX telco share is going to do much in the shorter-term. According to CMC Invest, there are currently four hold ratings and one buy rating. Those five ratings have an average price target of $5.21.
There could be a better pick than Telstra at the current value.
