It's looking like a pretty good day to own Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) shares this Monday. At the time of writing, the broader S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is having a rough start to the trading week, currently down 0.2% at around 8,715 points. In stark contrast, the Fortescue share price is pushing higher, presently enjoying a 0.9% lift to $22.52 a share.
As a mining share, many investors don't just own Fortescue for the capital growth potential, though. The dividends are a big reason why many ASX investors purchase Fortescue shares in the first place.
On that note, they have rarely been disappointed in the past. Fortescue has always been a formidable dividend payer. The miner habitually spins off fat dividend payments, which, as an added bonus, tend to come with full-franking credits attached too.
So today, let's discuss the dividend yield one may obtain if they purchase Fortescue shares today.
At the current share price, Fortescue is trading on a trailing dividend yield of 5.42%.
This is derived from Fortescue's last two dividend payments. The first was the interim dividend from September 2025, worth 60 cents per share. The second, the final dividend that was paid out in March. That was worth 62 cents per share. Both dividends came fully franked.
That combined 12-month total of $1.22 per share gives Fortescue that 5.42% yield the company is displaying today.
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Fortescue shares: Is that 5.4% yield for real?
However, as any good dividend investor knows, trailing yields reflect the past. Not what a company might yield in the future. There is no way to predict a company's future dividends. But trying to anticipate what a miner like Fortescue will dole out is particularly fraught. Like any resource stock, Fortescue is at the mercy of fickle and volatile international commodity markets. The company is a low-cost producer of iron ore and is one of the best companies in the world at digging red gold out of the ground. Even so, Fortescue's profits, and thus dividends, will always take a dramatic hit if the price of iron ore takes a dive.
We can see this playing out in Fortescue's dividend history. 2025, for example, saw the company dole out an annual total of $1.10 in dividends per share. That was a far cry from the $3.58 per share that shareholders pocketed in 2021.
To make a long story short, investors shouldn't buy Fortescue shares today thinking they are buying themselves a permanent 5.42% yield going forward.
Indeed, my Fool colleague Tristan recently looked at what experts are pencilling in for Fortescue, and the results weren't pretty. Analysts are anticipating that the miner will only be able to afford annual dividends worth $1.03 per share over FY 2026, dropping to 79.3 cents by FY 2027.
That would still see shareholders receive a decent income stream, of course. But not 5.42% worth.
Keep that in mind before you rush out and buy Fortescue shares for the dividends today.
