Beach Energy, Ampol and Woodside shares: 1 to buy, 1 to hold and 1 to sell

One of these shares is tipped to fall lower over the next 12 months.

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Oil and gas producers and distributors such as Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT), Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) and Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD) shares have been in focus this year as geopolitical tensions, volatility and oil price and supply fears put pressure on the ASX energy sector.

Here's the latest update from each energy stock, and what brokers expect next.

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Buy Ampol shares

Ampol shares are trading in the red on Wednesday afternoon. At the time of writing, the petroleum distribution and retailer's shares are down around 0.4% to $33.57. The shares have now slumped nearly 5% since the ASX opened on Monday morning. 

For the year-to-date, however, Ampol shares are up over 4%, and they're 30% higher than this time last year.

The company's shares climbed higher on the back of conflict in the Middle East and concerns about global oil supply earlier this year. 

Ampol has also posted a few recent updates that have gathered investor attention. In April, the Aussie fuel supplier said it had submitted a formal remedy offer to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) about a proposed acquisition of fuel and convenience store operator EG Australia. 

The company also confirmed a 10% increase in refinery production, higher refiner margins, and increased production in its Q1 FY26 trading update. 

Ampol has locked in diesel and jet fuel supply through to the end of May, and gasoline supplies to the end of June, despite rising landed crude costs. 

Brokers rate the stock as a strong buy, and the $35.80 average target price implies a potential 7% upside from here.

Hold Woodside shares

Woodside shares have also slumped slightly on Wednesday, down around 0.5% to $30.58 at the time of writing.

The shares have been resilient this year, however, climbing over 29% for the year-to-date and 43% over the past 12 months.

Unsurprisingly, the oil and gas giant's share price rally accelerated in early March, as conflict between the US and Iran intensified.

Woodside shares have rallied off the volatility around oil supply concerns, and even though conflict in the Middle East has cooled, the area is still highly volatile, and the movement of oil in the region is still uncertain.

It's not just market demand driving the company's shares higher, either. Woodside grabbed headlines in April when it posted a 7% quarter-on-quarter increase in operating revenue and a 8% hike in revenue for the first quarter of FY26. 

But it looks like analysts are concerned that the share price could be at, or approaching, its peak. If the US and Iran strike a deal to resume oil movement in the Middle East, it could have a headwind effect on Woodside shares.

They rate the stock as a hold with an average 10% upside to $33.34, at the time of writing. 

Sell Beach Energy shares

Beach Energy shares are also in the red at the time of writing, down around 1% to $1.08 a piece. While the oil and gas explorer and producer's shares flew higher off the back of geopolitical tensions in March, they tumbled just as quickly.

The shares are now down over 7% year-to-date and around 18% lower than this time last year.

Beach Energy posted its third-quarter update in April, which revealed softer sales, a guidance downgrade, and ongoing operational disruptions. The update spooked investors, and now many are worried about whether the company can consistently grow earnings from here.

Even news this week that it has agreed to sell its 60% operated interest in licence VIC/P35, which includes the Artisan gas discovery, hasn't slowed the selloff. 

Brokers aren't thrilled either. 

They rate the stock a sell, with an average target price of $1.12. That implies around a 2% downside at the time of writing.

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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