After years at the top end of the ASX, CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares are now trading below $100.
The former ASX market darling finished Friday 0.29% lower at $99.76. That leaves the biotech giant down around 23% in a month and almost 60% over the past year.
It also means CSL is trading only slightly above its recent 9-year low of $93.64. After such a heavy fall, that level is starting to look like an area investors are watching closely.
The question now is whether this is a rare chance to buy a fallen blue chip, or whether CSL still needs to earn back trust first.
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Why CSL has fallen so hard
CSL was once one of the ASX's most reliable blue-chip growth stocks.
Investors were happy to pay a premium because the company had global scale, strong healthcare assets, and a long record of delivering earnings growth.
But over the past year, that confidence has been badly damaged.
The pressure has built from several directions. CSL has been dealing with weaker earnings momentum, guidance downgrades, softer vaccine demand, and questions over execution.
And its latest downgrade only gave investors another reason to sell.
CSL now expects FY26 revenue of about US$15.2 billion on a constant currency basis. Net profit after tax (NPAT) is expected to be around US$3.1 billion.
That compares with FY25 revenue of US$15.6 billion and profit of US$3.3 billion.
CSL is still a major global healthcare company, but the latest numbers have made its old premium harder to defend.
The market wants proof
The frustrating part for shareholders is that CSL still owns valuable businesses.
It has major positions across plasma therapies, vaccines, and specialist medicines. These are not areas where demand has suddenly disappeared. Many of its products are tied to real patient needs and long-term healthcare demand.
But the market is no longer giving CSL the benefit of the doubt. Investors want to see proof that earnings can stabilise, costs can be controlled, and management can rebuild confidence.
Until then, the share price may struggle to escape the shadow of the company's recent downgrades.
There is also a leadership question hanging over the company, with CSL still searching for a permanent Chief Executive.
Broker views show how divided sentiment has become.
Macquarie recently set a $111 price target on CSL, applying a discount for earnings uncertainty. Morgans has been more upbeat, retaining a buy rating and a $147.59 target. Bell Potter has been more cautious, cutting its target to $100.
Is the sell-off overdone?
At under $100, CSL shares are much cheaper than they were a year ago. The 4.2% dividend yield also stands out more following such a large share price decline.
But a lower price does not automatically make this an easy bargain.
CSL still needs to show that its problems are temporary and not signs of a deeper reset in the business. China albumin pricing pressure, US inventory normalisation, and execution concerns are not issues investors will look past quickly.
Trading just above a recent 9-year low may tempt some buyers back in. But CSL still needs to give the market a reason to believe the worst is behind it.
