The ASX stock Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW) may well be one of Australia's top share opportunities right now. The large sell-off could be a great buying opportunity for opportunistic investors.
As the above chart shows, the Temple & Webster share price has more than halved in 2026 alone.
However, it's still materially above the lows seen in 2022 and 2023 when investors worried about what impacts higher inflation and interest rates could have on demand for homewares, furniture, and home improvement products – that's what Temple & Webster sells through its website.
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Why I think it's one of Australia's top shares
Interestingly, a large proportion of what's sold on the website is shipped directly by third-party suppliers, allowing Temple & Webster to be capital-light and generate substantial positive cash flow. It doesn't need to hold the amount of inventory that would be required to sell everything on its website.
The company has been very effective at growing its market share, including in FY26. Over the long term, I believe the business will continue to grow its market share, and scale benefits will flow through the company as rising profit margins.
In FY26, even in a difficult year, it expects to report revenue of between $665 million and $675 million, representing year-over-year growth of between 11% to 12%.
The company is successfully utilising AI across the business in a variety of ways, which helps improve customer satisfaction and conversion rates – those are key aspects that support a new customer becoming a returning customer. AI is also helping drive a 10% improvement in shipping cost accuracy.
One area of the business I think investors should pay close attention to is the home improvement segment, which includes products like tiles, wallpaper, sinks, and vanities for various rooms, cabinets, showers, baths, toilets, curtains and blinds, and heating and cooling. Its growth options like this are another reason why I'm calling this one of Australia's top shares to buy.
In the first half of FY26, the home improvement segment saw revenue growth of 47% to $30 million, a much faster growth rate than the core homewares and furniture segment. I think this business could deliver stronger revenue growth than the overall business for the foreseeable future.
I'm expecting the core business to continue to see benefits from the national adoption of e-commerce. Australia has tended to lag the UK and US in e-commerce adoption by between 5 and 7 years – Australia is now at approximately 20% e-commerce adoption for homewares and furniture, while the UK is at 29% and the US is at 35%. There's plenty of room for growth in the next five years.
This could be a great time to buy
The Temple & Webster share price has sunk heavily – not for the first time this decade – yet its revenue continues to climb.
I believe the market is significantly undervaluing where Temple & Webster could be in three to five years. It could be good to invest when the market is fearful.
I'm not suggesting it's going to go back above $20 in the next 12 months, but the company is focusing on profitability during this period, and this could help the market see how much its earnings could rise in the long term.
Temple & Webster expects its operating profit (EBITDA) to approximately double to around $40 million in FY27, even in a low growth scenario.
According to the forecast on CMC Invest, the Temple & Webster share price is valued at 32 times FY27's estimated earnings. This looks to me like a compelling time to look at one of Australia's top shares.
