Wondering whether the banks are in the buy zone right now?
Well, the team at Morgans has done the work for you. It has been busy running the rule over ASX bank shares and has given its verdict on them.
Here's what it is saying:
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ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ)
Morgans currently thinks that ANZ shares are overvalued at current levels and has put a sell rating and $30.72 price target on them. Based on its current share price of $36.41, this implies potential downside of 15.6%. It recently said:
We revise our forecasts ahead of ANZ's 1H26 result in May and reflecting on the recent updates provided by NAB and WBC. FY26-28F EPS downgraded by 6-7%. Target price reduced 6% to $30.72/sh. SELL retained given c.-15% downside at current prices, including 4.4% cash yield.
Bank of Queensland Ltd (ASX: BOQ)
This regional bank's shares could be around fair value now according to the broker. As a result, earlier this week it downgraded Bank of Queensland's shares to a hold rating with a $7.39 price target. Based on its current share price of $6.61, this implies potential upside of almost 12%. It explains:
We expect a material decline in 1H26 earnings, with recent share price strength driven by the expected capital return from the equipment finance whole-of-loan sale. Share price strength has compressed total return potential to c.5%. As such, we moderate our rating from ACCUMULATE to HOLD. Target price $7.39.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)
Australia's largest bank may be performing above expectations, but Morgans still isn't a buyer. It currently has a sell rating and $124.26 price target on CBA shares. Based on its current share price of $175.04, this implies potential downside of 29% over the next 12 months. It said:
CBA delivered a meaningful beat of 1H26 earnings expectations. We have materially upgraded our EPS forecasts after factoring in continuation of higher loan growth and benign credit loss environments. We expect DPS growth won't match EPS growth as we see approaching CET1 capital tightness. Target price lifted to $124.26. SELL retained, with potential TSR of -24% (including 3% cash yield) at current elevated prices and trading multiples.
National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB)
This big four bank's shares may be down heavily from their 52-week high, but Morgans still thinks they are overvalued.
This week, the broker put a sell rating and $34.56 price target on NAB shares. Based on its current share price of $40.22, this suggests that 14% downside is possible.
NAB announced a $1.8bn DRP equity raising, increased loan provisioning, and acceleration of capital software amortisation. Material forecast downgrades as we adjust for today's announcement and introduce increased conservatism into our modelling. SELL given potential TSR at current prices of -12% (including c.4.2% cash yield).
Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC)
Morgans has downgraded Australia's oldest bank's shares to a sell rating with a $34.06 price target following the release of its trading update.
Based on the current Westpac share price of $39.40, this implies potential downside of 13.5% for investors over the next 12 months. It said:
WBC published a trading update ahead of its 1H26 result due for release on 5 May. Implied revenues were weaker, costs lower, and credit impairment charges higher than our and market expectations. We revise our rating from TRIM to SELL as total return expectations at current prices have fallen below the -10% trigger. We estimate c.18% price downside risk partly offset by c.3.8% forecast cash yield. Target price $34.06.
