Hub24 Ltd (ASX: HUB) shares were out of form on Tuesday.
Following the release of a softer than expected quarterly update, the ASX 200 share tumbled over 8% to finish the day at $87.50.
While this is disappointing, the team at Bell Potter thinks it could have created a buying opportunity.
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What is the broker saying about this ASX 200 share?
While the market was disappointed with the update, Bell Potter saw enough in it to remain positive. It said:
HUB has delivered a mildly positive trading update. While the key number was slightly below consensus, the quantum of net inflows remain on an upwards trajectory, above our expectations. To that end the story looks changed, with the run-rate exiting flatter after showing strong growth in the first six weeks of trade.
A singular institutional client outflow, combined with peak pessimism in March, weighed on the cadence. We draw parallels to similar periods of poor sentiment as the key reason. HUB issued positive language for momentum and highlighted the strong growth in retail net inflows. These aspects are unchanged and the install base on R12M is in a familiar strong position.
In response to the update, the broker has trimmed its earnings estimates. But that doesn't change much in the grand scheme of things, with earnings per share still expected to grow 33% in FY 2026, 21% in FY 2027, and then 17% in FY 2028. Commenting on its revisions, Bell Potter said:
Following the update we have downgraded our EPS estimates -1%/-2%/-2% with the miss dampened from mark-to-market impacts. FY27 Platform FUA guidance of $160-170bn remains in play, with revised forecasts landing on the lower end of that range. A pickup in sentiment would likely push outcomes the other way. Acquisition of the superannuation fund trustee is also expected to have a limited influence on EBITDA line. For these reasons, we expect the multiple gap to peers can close over time.
Should you invest?
According to the note, Bell Potter has retained its buy rating on Hub24's shares with a reduced price target of $110.00 (from $120.00).
Based on its current share price, this implies potential upside of over 25% for investors over the next 12 months.
Commenting on its recommendation, the broker said:
Our Buy rating is unchanged. Enhancements launched during the quarter target new business transitions and the overlooked HNW segment while reducing advice friction.
