Up 60% in a year, 3 reasons to buy Ampol shares today

A leading analyst forecasts more outperformance from Ampol's surging shares. But why?

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After hitting new 52-week highs in earlier trade today, Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD) shares have edged into the red.

In afternoon trade on Thursday, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) Aussie fuel supplier are swapping hands for $33.06 apiece, down 0.2%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.3% at this same time.

Taking a step back, Ampol shares have surged 60.1% over the past 12 months, smashing the 15.4% one-year gains delivered by the benchmark index. And that's not including the 10 cents a share in fully-franked dividends the company paid to eligible stockholders over the year.

Ampol stock currently trades on a fully-franked trailing dividend yield of 3%.

And looking ahead, DP Wealth Advisory's Andrew Wielandt believes the stock is well positioned for more outperformance (courtesy of The Bull).

Here's why.

A smiling woman puts fuel into her car at a petrol pump.

Image source: Getty Images

Should you buy Ampol shares today?

"Ampol is Australia's largest petrol and convenience network. It serves about three million customers a week across about 1800 branded sites," Wielandt noted.

Citing the first reason he's bullish on Ampol shares, he said, "Ampol is increasingly rolling out a network of unstaffed U-GO fuel sites operating 24 hours a day, which are gaining popularity."

Then there's the company refinery, one of just two refineries still operating in Australia.

"Ampol also owns the Lytton oil refinery in Queensland, and it was a major contributor to earnings in full year 2025," Wielandt said.

Viva Energy Group Ltd (ASX: VEA) owns and operates Australia's only other refinery. And, as you may have heard, operations at Viva Energy's Geelong refinery in Victoria are likely to be impacted for some time by a major fire that broke out at the site last night.

Which brings us to the third reason Wielandt has a buy rating on Ampol shares.

"The convenience retail segment grew earnings in 2025 and provides the benefit of diversification," he concluded.

What's been happening with the ASX 200 energy stock?

It wasn't just Ampol's convenience retail segment that grew earnings in 2025.

The company's fuels and infrastructure, and New Zealand segments both delivered earnings growth as well.

On a group level, Ampol shares caught investor interest with the company reporting 2025 calendar year earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $1.44 billion, up 20% from 2024.

And on the bottom line, Ampol's underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) was up 83% to $429 million.

"The financial performance in 2025 is a high quality and broad-based result that reflects the steps taken in recent years to strengthen our delivery and increase our exposure to the more stable and growing business segments," Ampol CEO Matt Halliday said.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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