Qantas shares dip after fresh market update puts FY26 in focus

Qantas fuel pressures look manageable as travel demand stays solid.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) shares are sliding on Tuesday after management stepped back in front of the market with a fresh trading update.

The airline had already been trying to stabilise after a rough few months, with the stock still down about 14% in 2026 following today's decline.

In morning trade, the Qantas share price is down a modest 0.33% to $8.98.

That puts the stock closer to the early April lows, though it still remains well below the February peak above $11.

The move comes after investors were given a clearer view of how the airline expects current global disruptions to flow through the second half.

Couple at an airport waiting for their flight.

Image source: Getty Images

Higher fuel costs are being offset elsewhere

The key issue in today's release was the jump in jet fuel costs.

Qantas said fuel prices have more than doubled since its half-year result in February, with the combined fuel and refining margin impact expected to add roughly $200 million to second-half FY26 costs.

Even so, the market seems comfortable with the way management has framed the offset.

The airline noted that about 90% of second-half fuel exposure is already hedged, while fare increases, route changes, and capacity adjustments are already being used to recover part of the pressure.

Demand trends also appear to still be working in its favour.

International travel into Europe remains firm, which has allowed aircraft to be shifted toward stronger-yielding routes, including Paris and Rome.

That helps explain why the group was comfortable leaving its international revenue guidance unchanged despite the cost pressure.

Capital discipline may also be helping sentiment

Another part of the update that likely supported the share price was the balance sheet.

Management said FY26 capital expenditure is now expected to come in at or below $4.1 billion, which is the bottom end of previous guidance. Net debt is also still expected to remain within its target range by year end.

The previously announced 19.8 cents per share fully-franked interim dividend is still due to be paid this week. However, the planned $150 million on-market share buyback has not yet started.

Foolish Takeaway

Today's small loss reflects growing comfort that the profit impact is being contained rather than concern over the latest update.

Fuel is still the main short-term issue, but hedging, ticket price increases, solid travel demand, and tighter spending should help support second-half earnings.

With the shares still below their February highs, the latest update may improve investor confidence if conditions stay stable.

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Travel Shares

Man sitting in a plane looking through a window and working on a laptop.
Travel Shares

Corporate Travel Management updates UK remediation progress and settlement terms

Corporate Travel Management has announced substantial progress resolving UK customer claims, taking key steps towards settlement and future reinstatement.

Read more »

A happy team of businesspeople stand in a corporate office.
Travel Shares

Corporate Travel Management teams up with Amadeus for global tech upgrade

Corporate Travel Management announces a five-year Amadeus partnership to enhance digital capabilities and customer experience.

Read more »

Man waiting for his flight and looking at his phone.
Travel Shares

Corporate Travel Management secures new UK Ministry of Defence contract

Corporate Travel Management shares are in focus after landing a new UK Ministry of Defence contract forecast to generate £28…

Read more »

Happy couple looking at a phone and waiting for their flight at an airport.
Travel Shares

Are Qantas shares good value this week?

At around 9 times forecast FY27 earnings, I think Qantas is becoming harder to ignore.

Read more »

Pilot on the phone looking distraught.
Broker Notes

Sell alert! Why this expert is ditching Qantas shares for this ASX 200 defence stock

A leading expert is selling Qantas shares and buying this surging ASX 200 defence stock instead. But why?

Read more »

A female cabin crew member on a place looks like she has a headache.
Travel Shares

Why Qantas shares flew into turbulence in July

Investors sent Qantas share sharply lower in July. But why?

Read more »

Smiling woman looking through a plane window.
Travel Shares

Why this top broker expects Qantas shares to soar 25%

A leading broker believes Qantas shares are trading at a steep discount. But why?

Read more »

Rising plane share price represented by a inclining line with a model plane at the end.
Travel Shares

Is the Qantas share price a buy for its 6% dividend yield?

Should investors go all aboard for Qantas dividends?

Read more »