Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) shares are edging lower today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) energy provider closed on Friday trading for $12.38. During the Monday lunch hour, shares are swapping hands for $12.28 each, down 0.8%.
For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.5% at this same time.
Taking a step back, Origin Energy shares have gained 21.7% over 12 months, handily outpacing the 15.1% one-year gains posted by the benchmark index.
And that doesn't include the 60 cents a share in fully-franked dividends the company has paid eligible stockholders over this time. Origin Energy stock trades on a fully-franked trailing dividend yield of 4.9%.
And looking ahead, Shaw and Partners' Jed Richards forecasts more outperformance to come (courtesy of The Bull).
Here's why.
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Should you buy Origin Energy shares today?
"Origin combines an attractive income profile with leveraged exposure to Australia's evolving energy market," Richards said.
Citing the first two reasons he's bullish on Origin Energy shares, Richards said, "The company benefits from scale in electricity generation and retailing, while its yield remains appealing in a market still sensitive to income certainty."
On the risk front, he added, "That said, regulatory risk and energy price volatility remain key risks."
And the third reason you might want to buy the ASX 200 energy stock today relates to Australia's ongoing sustainable energy push.
"We see Origin as well placed to balance defensive income characteristics with longer term opportunities tied to the domestic energy transition," Richards concluded.
What's the latest from the ASX 200 energy stock?
Origin Energy reported its half-year results (H1 FY 2026) on 12 February.
Over the six months, the company noted that higher-than-expected earnings in its Energy Markets segment were offset by lower earnings in its Integrated Gas segment and a lower contribution from Octopus Energy.
This saw a 17.5% year-on-year reduction in underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to $1.589 billion. On the bottom line, underlying profit of $593 million was down 35.8% from H1 FY 2025.
Pleasingly, the ASX 200 energy stock upgraded its full-year underlying Energy Markets EBITDA guidance to between $1.55 billion and $1.75 billion.
"Origin's first half results are solid, allowing an upgrade to full-year guidance for Energy Markets," Origin Energy CEO Frank Calabria said.
Calabria added:
Retail performance continued to strengthen, grid-scale batteries added further portfolio flexibility, gas production was steady, and cost management remained disciplined as commodity prices softened.
Origin Energy shares closed up 3.9% on the day of the results release.
