BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are edging lower today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giant closed on Friday trading for $50.37. In morning trade on Monday, shares are swapping hands for $50.24, down 0.3%.
For some context, the ASX 200 is down 1.5% at this same time.
Taking a step back, BHP shares have strongly outperformed over the past year, gaining 31.5% compared to the 7.4% 12-month gains posted by the benchmark index. BHP also paid out two fully franked dividends over the year totalling (a rounded) $1.96 a share.
However, since the onset of the Middle East conflict, the Aussie mining giant has underperformed. Shares have fallen 15.2% since market close on 2 March, trailing the 8.8% losses posted by the ASX 200.
Which, according to Sanlam Private Wealth's Remo Greco, could make now an opportune time to pick up some shares in the ASX 200 miner at a bargain (courtesy of The Bull).
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Should you buy BHP shares today?
"The current volatility presents investors with an opportunity to buy this global miner at attractive prices," said Greco, citing the first reason he's bullish on BHP shares.
As for the second reason, he noted:
The recent BHP announcement of Brandon Craig replacing the retiring Mike Henry as chief executive is a good appointment. Craig was responsible for the company's Americas business, and that's where the growth is likely to come from in the medium term.
BHP shares closed up 0.7% on 18 March, the day the miner announced Craig's elevation to CEO.
And the third reason you might want to buy the ASX 200 mining giant today is its growing revenues and profits.
"Group revenue in the first half of 2026 was up 11% on the prior corresponding period and profit from operations was up 34%," Greco said.
A modestly less bullish view
MPC Markets' Mark Gardner also recently analysed the outlook for BHP shares.
While he also sounded an optimistic note, Gardner currently has a hold recommendation on the ASX 200 mining stock.
According to Gardner:
The global miner delivered a strong half year result in fiscal year 2026. Copper delivered the majority of earnings for the first time in the company's modern history. The dividend was above expectations. The balance sheet is in good shape.
The conflict in Iran has rattled commodity markets, and BHP shares have fallen heavily. Most of BHP's output goes to Asia, not through the Strait of Hormuz. The market is selling the ticker, not the fundamentals.
We suggest adding on weakness, and holding for an upgrade when the conflict ends.
