Up 45% in a year, 3 reasons to buy Sims shares today

A leading analyst forecasts more outperformance from Sims' soaring share price. But why?

Sims Ltd (ASX: SGM) shares are edging lower today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) metal and electronics recycler closed yesterday trading for $20.17. During the Thursday lunch hour, shares are changing hands for $19.93 apiece, down 1.2%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.3% at this same time.

Taking a step back, Sim shares have strongly outperformed over the past year. Shares in the ASX 200 industrial stock have gained 45% in 12 months, racing ahead of the 15.4% one-year gains posted by the benchmark index.

And that doesn't include the two fully-franked dividends the company paid eligible stockholders over this time. Sims stock trades on a fully-franked trailing dividend yield of 1.4%.

And looking to the months ahead, Shaw and Partners' Jed Richards expects the stock is well-placed to deliver more outperformance (courtesy of The Bull).

Here's why.

Smiling worker in metal landfill.

Image source: Getty Images

Should you buy Sims shares today?

"Sims offers exposure to long term stronger and sustainable commodity themes through its global metals recycling operations, particularly in Europe," said Richards, citing the first reason you might want to buy Sims shares today.

As for the second reason, Richards noted, "Demand for recycled inputs, such as lithium, copper and gold, continue to grow as electrification and decarbonisation trends advance."

Richards concluded:

The business provides leverage to improving industrial activity, although earnings can be volatile given commodity price swings and cyclical end markets.

In our view, the strategic positioning justifies a buy despite near term volatility.

The (slightly less) bullish case for the ASX 200 industrial stock

DP Wealth Advisory's Andrew Wielandt also ran his slide rule over Sims shares on The Bull this week.

"Sims is a global metals and electronics recycler providing exposure to North America, the United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand," said Wielandt, who has a hold recommendation on the ASX 200 stock following the strong run higher in its share price.

According to Wielandt:

The outlook for Sims is encouraging in response to the company upgrading full year earnings guidance. Impressive share price gains in the past 12 months leaves SGM a hold for now and a potential buy on further weakness. The stock has risen from $12.51 on April 9, 2025 to trade at $20.62 on April 9, 2026.

What's the latest on Sims shares?

As Wielandt mentioned above, on 18 March, Sims announced that it expects full-year FY 2026 underlying earnings before income on tax (EBIT) to be in the range of $350 million to $400 million.

That's a big leg up from FY 2025 underlying EBIT of $175 million.

Sims shares closed up 9.9% on the day of the announcement.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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