S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares are down 8.9% since the war in Iran began, with mining stocks the hardest hit.
The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ) — dominated by Australian miners — has fallen 18.7% since 28 February.
Amid the market turmoil, here are three ASX mining shares to buy, hold, and sell, according to the experts.
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Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)
The Northern Star Resources share price closed at $17.57 yesterday, up 2.1% for the day and down 2% over 12 months.
The ASX 200 gold mining share has fallen 42% since the war began.
A downgrade in guidance from the miner and a 16% fall in the gold price have contributed to the stock's dramatic fall this month.
Last week, Ord Minnett reiterated its buy rating on Northern Star Resources shares.
However, the broker slashed its 12-month target from $29.70 to $23.70.
This still implies a potential upside of 35% ahead.
BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)
The BHP share price closed at $48.52 yesterday, up 3% for the day and up 23% over the past 12 months.
The market's largest ASX 200 mining share has fallen 17% since the war in Iran began.
As we reported yesterday, BHP is among the 5 most traded ASX 200 shares on the Stake platform this month.
It's likely that investors have been cashing in their gains after BHP shares reached a new record of $59.39 on 3 March.
Last week, UBS reiterated its hold rating on BHP shares with a 12-month price target of $52.
Liontown Ltd (ASX: LTR)
This ASX 200 lithium mining share finished yesterday's session at $1.55, up 6.5%.
Liontown has held up much better than its materials sector peers since the war in Iran began.
The Liontown share price has fallen 9.3% since 28 February, but remains 138% higher over 12 months.
Lithium commodity prices have been resilient this month, falling just 3.6% over 30 days.
On The Bull this week, Tony Locantro from Alto Capital put a sell rating on Liontown shares.
Locantro explained:
The company's first half year result in fiscal year 2026 highlighted strong operational progress, with production ramping up and revenue increasing significantly from growing concentrate shipments.
While the long term outlook for lithium demand remains encouraging, the current share price appears to reflect a large portion of the project's future growth potential.
With earnings still developing and the company transitioning through a capital intensive ramp-up phase, the risk-reward balance at current levels favours taking profits following the sector's recent re-rating.
