It has been a brutal month for shareholders of this $27 billion ASX gold stock.
Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) has tumbled 32% over the past month to $18.96 at the time of writing, including a sharp 9.5% drop on Thursday alone.
That's a dramatic reversal from 2025, when the stock surged an impressive 73%.
So, what's going on?
Image source: Getty Images
Gold falls, oil rises
A big part of the answer lies in the gold price itself. On 2 March, gold was trading at around US$5,322 per ounce. Today, it's closer to US$4,674, marking a decline of more than 9% in just a few weeks.
At the same time, oil has surged. Brent crude is now up roughly 38% over the same period. That divergence matters.
When gold falls and oil rises, investors often rotate capital away from gold miners and into energy stocks. That appears to be playing out now, with money flowing out of ASX gold stocks and into the oil and gas sector.
Even so, it's worth keeping things in perspective. Despite the recent sell-off, the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) remains up more than 48% over the past 12 months. This highlights just how strong the sector's run has been.
In that context, Northern Star's pullback could partly reflect profit-taking after a stellar year.
So where to next?
Northern Star remains one of the ASX's premier gold producers, with large-scale, long-life assets and a strong production profile. The operations of the ASX gold stock in Western Australia give it exposure to a stable mining jurisdiction, while its scale provides cost advantages relative to smaller peers.
That said, risks remain. Like all ASX gold stocks, Northern Star is highly sensitive to commodity prices. If gold continues to weaken, earnings could come under pressure. At the same time, rising energy costs — driven by higher oil prices — can squeeze margins, given the energy-intensive nature of mining operations.
Operational performance is another key factor. Any production disruptions or cost blowouts could further weigh on investor sentiment, particularly after such a sharp share price decline.
Despite these risks, analysts appear largely unfazed by the recent volatility.
Buy, hold or sell?
Most brokers continue to rate the leading ASX gold stock as a buy or strong buy, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term fundamentals. The average 12-month price target currently sits at $28.96, implying potential upside of around 53% from current levels.
Some brokers have also pointed to the recent pullback as a potential opportunity. They argue that the company's quality assets and strong track record position it well to benefit when gold prices stabilise.
The bottom line?
Northern Star's sharp decline highlights just how quickly sentiment can shift in commodity markets.
But with a strong asset base, solid production outlook, and continued broker support, this ASX gold stock may still have plenty of shine left for patient investors.
