Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares are in focus this week after the company experienced a historic crash on Friday.
The share price tumbled more than 18% in a single day.
It has now fallen more than 30% since the start of March.
Image source: Getty Images
What's going on with Northern Star shares?
Northern Star Resources is a global-scale Australian gold producer with projects in Australia and North America.
Northern Star currently has gold production centres at its Kalgoorlie and Yandal projects in Western Australia and the Pogo goldfields in Alaska.
In 2025, it was one of the many ASX gold shares that enjoyed a strong run amidst record global gold prices as investors pushed into safe-haven assets.
However, on Friday, investors were exiting their positions after the company released an operational update.
What did the company release?
The company's operational update included an indication it may miss the lower end of its full-year production forecast, with operational challenges impacting FY26 so far.
Specifically, Northern Star reported:
- Total gold sales for January and February 2026: 220,000 ounces (koz)
- FY26 production now expected above 1.50 million ounces (Moz), previously guided higher
- Weaker-than-planned milling performance at KCGM and reduced mining productivity at Jundee weighed on results
- KCGM mine open pit high-grade ore mined: averaged 1.6g/t for the first two months of 2026
- KCGM mill expansion project remains on track for early FY27 commissioning.
Northern Star expects to provide more detail on FY26 production and costs with its March quarter results on 22 April 2026.
Despite the recent crash during March, Northern Star shares remain up 25% over the last year.
Are Northern Star shares a buy, hold or sell?
Sentiment on the Australian gold producer is mixed amongst analysts.
Northern Star shares closed last Friday at $21.75.
Last month, Bell Potter had a price target on the company of $35.00.
However its important to note this was prior to the latest reduced guidance out of the company.
18 analysts forecasts via TradingView have an average one year price target of $32.56.
There is a wide range of perspectives however, with the highest target sitting at $41.80, while the lowest sits at $17.00.
If the share price reached this high, it would be a gain of more than 90%.
Meanwhile, if it were to reach the low range of this guidance, it would be a further 22% drop.
