Northern Star shares crash 16% on second guidance downgrade for FY26

The gold miner is having a tough year but remains positive on the future.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares are falling heavily on Friday morning.

At the time of writing, the gold mining giant's shares are down 16% to $22.46.

A man in a suit face palms at the downturn happening with shares today.

Image source: Getty Images

Why are Northern Star shares falling?

Investors have been selling the gold miner's shares this morning following the release of an operational update.

That update revealed that management believes achieving the lower end of its downgraded FY 2026 production guidance will be challenging.

According to the release, Northern Star has experienced weaker performance over the last two months. This has been driven largely by weaker-than-planned milling performance at the KCGM operation and reduced mining productivity across several operating areas, particularly at Jundee.

The company revealed that total gold sales for January and February were 220,000 ounces.

While several factors will continue to influence the final result, Northern Star currently expects FY 2026 production to come in above 1.5 million ounces. However, the outcome will depend heavily on mill throughput at KCGM, which management says continues to be highly variable.

This compares to its most recent guidance of 1.6 million to 1.7 million ounces, which was downgraded from 1.7 million to 1.85 million ounces.

KCGM expansion

Northern Star also provided an update on the KCGM Mill Expansion Project, which it says remains on track for commissioning in early FY 2027.

Management revealed that the company has increased labour on the project to offset lower-than-planned productivity and protect the commissioning timeline. Approximately 800 contractors are currently working on the plant and another 400 contractors are completing enabling works.

But until the expanded mill comes online, operations will remain dependent on the existing mill, where performance has been highly variable.

Northern Star's managing director and CEO, Stuart Tonkin, said:

Front of mind for Management and the Board is that efforts to achieve the FY26 forecast do not compromise the transition to the new plant and have negative implications for Q1 next year. To deal with that concern, Management's focus over the next four months will be to set the Company up to achieve its full potential from the start of FY27 and not on the achievement of short-term guidance above all else. The production focus over this period will be on extracting ounces in the most effective way, from both a cost and mining efficiency perspective.

Looking ahead, Northern Star advised that it has commenced work on producing medium term forecasts. It expects to release these forecasts prior to the end of the year. Tonkin adds:

We have heard the clear feedback from our investors on the importance of a more granular understanding of the medium-term production, cost and capital outlook for our asset base. This work is underway and we are committed to presenting this information to the market later this year.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Gold

A woman stands in a field and raises her arms to welcome a golden sunset.
Resources Shares

Newmont shares jump again as record cash flow and buyback boost sentiment

Newmont shares rise after reporting record cash flow and expanded buybacks.

Read more »

A mining executive from Red Dirt Metals chats on her mobile phone looking pleased with a mining site and mining truck in the background
Gold

Guess which ASX 300 gold stock is outperforming following 'a significant step forward' in Canada

The ASX gold stock is rising in Friday’s falling market. But why?

Read more »

a large pile of cash made up of bundled $100 notes is piled against a plain background.
Gold

This buy-rated ASX 200 gold stock has $1 billion in cash

Bell Potter thinks investors should be buying this cash-heavy gold stock.

Read more »

Group of business people joining together silver and golden coloured gears on table at workplace.
Gold

Why Resolute shares are on watch after this major quarterly update

Resolute shares rise as Doropo becomes the next key driver.

Read more »

Calculator and gold bars on Australian dollars, symbolising dividends.
Gold

What did ASX gold shares Regis Resources, Perseus, and West African report today?

Was it a golden quarter for these miners? Let's find out.

Read more »

Miner with thumbs up at a mine.
Gold

How this $1.5 billion ASX 200 gold stock is on track to ramp up FY 2027 production

The ASX 200 gold stock is expanding its footprint in Western Australia.

Read more »

A woman stands in a field and raises her arms to welcome a golden sunset.
Resources Shares

Northern Star Resources March quarter 2026: higher-margin gold sales and solid cash flow

Northern Star Resources reported higher-margin gold sales, strong cash flow, and confirmed its growth and investment plans for FY26.

Read more »

Gold bars on top of gold coins.
Gold

2 ASX gold shares backed by experts for growth

ASX gold shares are barely in the green for 2026 but experts say there are good buys in the market.

Read more »