S&P/ASX All Ords Gold Index (ASX: XGD) shares are barely in the green for 2026 as the Iran war continues to impact the safe-haven asset.
The gold price is trading at US$4,782 per ounce, up 11.5% in the year to date, following a major sell-off in the first few weeks of the war.
ASX investors sold down their gold shares and ETFs last month, but experts say there are still good buys in the market.
In a newsletter this week, Blackwattle Mid Cap Quality Fund portfolio managers Tim Riordan and Michael Teran said:
… the structural drivers for gold remain firmly intact, with Central Banks continuing to diversify reserves away from US Treasuries and geopolitical uncertainty providing an ongoing floor for demand.
Sprott Managing Partner, Paul Wong, said the gold price drop last month represented a rush to liquidity, not an end to gold's bull run.
Wong added: "Structural pressures are building toward renewed monetary support—historically a powerful catalyst for gold."
With that in mind, here are two ASX 200 gold shares that experts are backing for long-term growth.
Image source: Getty Images
Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM)
Newmont Corporation CDI shares dropped 14% in March but have recovered 5% in April so far to $159.07 per share.
Riordan and Teran said Newmont Corporation is the largest, lowest-cost, and most diversified gold miner in the world.
We continue to see material upside for NEM as an 'enduring high-quality' business and view NEM as the highest quality gold miner globally.
We expect NEM to execute on numerous multi-year internal levers to maintain and improve business quality, including organic production expansion, operating cost reductions, a net cash balance sheet and further capital returns.
This should allow NEM to deliver a higher quality, lower cost and increasingly diversified asset base through 2026 and 2027, and the March share price weakness represents a highly attractive entry point for a long-term compounder.
Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN)
The Evolution share price fell 24% in March, and has recovered 8% in April to $13.60 per share.
Morgans upgraded its rating on this ASX 200 gold mining share from hold to accumulate last week.
The upgraded rating followed Evolution's March quarter report and a separate exploration update.
However, the broker reduced its 12-month price target from $17.16 to $16.10.
This still implies a potential near-20% upside ahead.
Morgans said:
Gold production met expectations despite weather and maintenance impacts, with weaker copper and higher AISC driven by Ernest Henry disruptions.
Strong 4Q26 expected to achieve FY26 guidance. Achieves net cash position with an updated capital management policy expected at its FY26 result in August.
We upgrade to an ACCUMULATE (from HOLD) following recent weakness across the gold sector which we believe has uncovered value in a high-quality name, despite a strong share price reaction post the result.
