These 2 S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares explored new depths on Monday.
Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) and Lendlease Group Ltd (ASX: LLC) fell 4.2% and 3.1% respectively, sliding to fresh 52-week lows. Treasury Wine has lost 58% of its value over the past 12 months, while Lendlease has dropped 38% over the same period.
Now the big question is: Can these two ASX 200 shares stage a recovery?
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Treasury Wine Estates: US and China headwinds
The ASX 200 share has been under pressure as weaker US demand for luxury wine weighs on sales. Elevated inventories and shifting consumer habits, including moderation trends and softer discretionary spending, have also created headwinds.
The company has additionally been navigating the after-effects of China's earlier tariffs on Australian wine. Although those tariffs have been removed, rebuilding brand momentum and distribution in China will take time.
Despite this, the ASX 200 wine share still owns globally recognised brands such as Penfolds. Management has also been pushing deeper into the luxury and premium segments, which typically deliver stronger margins.
If demand improves and the Chinese market continues reopening, the strategy could support a recovery in earnings over time.
Analysts remain divided on the ASX 200 share, with most of them sitting on the fence. The average 12-month price target is $5.41, implying a 31% upside from the current share price of $4.13.
Lendlease: Structural global property challenges
Meanwhile, Lendlease has been grappling with structural challenges across global property markets. Higher interest rates have pressured real estate valuations and made development projects more expensive to fund.
At the same time, the ASX 200 share has been undertaking a sweeping strategic reset, selling assets and simplifying its operations to reduce risk and strengthen its balance sheet.
Even so, Lendlease retains significant expertise in large-scale urban development, with projects spanning Australia, Europe, and the US. The company is also focusing on recycling capital and concentrating on markets where it believes it has the strongest competitive advantage.
If property markets stabilise and the restructuring delivers the intended efficiencies, the ASX 200 share could emerge leaner and better positioned for growth.
Despite the share price slump, analysts still see upside for the property stock if the restructuring delivers improved returns.
Broker forecasts currently place the average 12-month price target at around $5.30, implying potential upside of about 44% from recent levels if property markets stabilise.
Foolish Takeaway
Broker sentiment toward the two ASX 200 shares is mixed. Some analysts see value emerging after their steep share price declines, while others remain cautious until there is clearer evidence that earnings and market conditions are improving.
For investors with a long-term mindset, both Treasury Wine Estates and Lendlease could yet prove to be turnaround stories, but patience may be required before confidence fully returns.
