ASX uranium shares, including Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN) and Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE), look well placed to deliver outsized returns over the next several years.
That's according to the team at Shaw and Partners.
Both Paladin and Boss Energy shares are already off to a strong start in 2026.
Year to date at the time of writing, the Paladin share price is up 28.3%, while Boss Energy shares have gained 14%. That compares to a 1.1% gain posted by the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) over this same period.
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Why ASX uranium shares could charge higher from here
In a new report, Uranium Super-Cycle, Shaw and Partners recommends investors hold an overweight position in ASX uranium shares.
The broker expects that "a growing disconnect" between global uranium supply and long-term nuclear demand will see a big uptick in uranium prices, which should help lift profits for producers like Boss Energy and Paladin.
Uranium was recently trading for around US$88 per pound, after hitting a two-year high of $101 per pound on 29 January.
But citing structural supply deficits, accelerating nuclear demand, and tightening fuel contracting cycles, Shaw and Partners expects nuclear fuel to surge to US$200 per pound.
In the new report, the broker now forecasts a uranium spot price of US$175 per pound in 2027, up from its prior forecast of US$150 per pound. And in 2028, Shaw and Partners expects uranium will fetch US$200 per pound, up from the prior forecast of US$150 per pound.
Why the uranium price could more than double by 2028
Shaw and Partners' bullish outlook on the price of the nuclear fuel, and the resulting expected strength of ASX uranium shares, follows on what it called a "sharp market signal" when uranium spiked from US$85 per pound to US$102 per pound in only three days at the end of January.
Andrew Hines, head of research at Shaw and Partners, said this big move shows just how sensitive the uranium market is to incremental buying pressure.
According to Hines:
The January spike demonstrated how quickly this market can reprice. A relatively modest amount of financial buying was enough to move the spot price materially. If utilities return to the term market in size, we believe the upside move could be significant.
Shaw and Partners noted that global nuclear capacity currently consumes some 180 million pounds of uranium a year. That's significantly more than the existing mine production of around 150 million pounds a year.
And bringing more uranium to the market isn't something the miners can do overnight.
"On paper there are new projects slated for development, but in practice these are technically complex, capital intensive and often in challenging jurisdictions," Hines said.
Atop Paladin and Boss Energy, Shaw and Partners' preferred exposure to ASX uranium shares includes:
- Bannerman Energy Ltd (ASX: BMN), whose shares are up 28.6% year to date
- NexGen Energy Ltd (ASX: NXG), whose shares are up 24.5% year to date
- Peninsula Energy Ltd (ASX: PEN), whose shares are down 3.3% year to date
"The narrative around nuclear has shifted decisively," Hines said. "Energy security, decarbonisation and AI-driven power demand are converging. Nuclear is no longer a fringe solution. It is becoming central to energy policy."
