When I think about holding a share for 10 years or more, I'm not asking whether next quarter's result will beat consensus.
I'm asking something much simpler. Does this business sit in front of a powerful, long-term trend that is likely to be bigger in a decade than it is today?
If the answer is yes, and management executes reasonably well, time can do a lot of the heavy lifting.
Here are three ASX 200 shares I would be happy to tuck away for the next decade.
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DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO)
The nature of warfare is evolving. Low-cost drones have become a genuine battlefield threat, and countries are rapidly adapting their defence strategies. Counter-drone technology is shifting from a niche capability to something closer to a standard requirement.
DroneShield has built a reputation in RF detection and defeat systems, backed by years of development and real-world deployment. It also has a growing sales pipeline worth over $2 billion that reflects how seriously governments are taking this risk.
If you zoom out ten years, I find it hard to imagine a world where counter-drone capabilities are less important than they are today. That's the lens through which I view this stock. It will be volatile. It will win and lose contracts. But the structural tailwind looks powerful to me.
Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP)
Zip is a very different story. For me, this isn't about explosive growth at any cost anymore. It's about discipline and maturing as a business.
The buy now, pay later company has already been through a full cycle. It has tightened credit settings, exited weaker markets, and focused on profitability. That evolution matters. It tells me management has learned from the past.
Over the next decade, digital payments and alternative credit are unlikely to shrink. Consumers increasingly expect flexibility at checkout, and merchants value higher conversion rates. If Zip continues to operate with discipline, there is room for steady expansion without needing to chase reckless growth.
This isn't a defensive ASX 200 share. But over a ten-year horizon, I think a leaner, more focused Zip could look very different to the company many investors remember.
Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: TLX)
Telix is a story about precision medicine. Healthcare is moving toward more targeted diagnostics and therapies, particularly in oncology. Telix operates in radiopharmaceuticals, combining imaging and treatment in ways that can improve patient outcomes.
What attracts me here is not just a single product cycle. It's the broader shift toward personalised cancer care and the role nuclear medicine can play in that shift.
Telix already has commercial products on the market and is expanding its pipeline. If even part of that pipeline delivers over the next decade, earnings could scale meaningfully.
Of course, clinical development carries risk. But over a long time frame, I believe innovation in cancer diagnostics and treatment will only accelerate. Telix is positioned at the heart of that change.
Foolish takeaway
DroneShield, Zip, and Telix operate in defence technology, digital payments, and precision medicine. Three very different industries, three very different risk profiles.
What they share, in my view, is exposure to trends that are unlikely to fade over the next decade. If I'm building a portfolio for the long haul, those are the kinds of ASX 200 shares I want to own.
