The S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO) gained a healthy 1.3% last week, with one ASX 300 stock doing a lot of the heavy lifting.
The fast-rising stock in question is Nuix Ltd (ASX: NXL).
Shares in the investigative analytics and intelligence software provider closed up a blistering 41.2% last week, finishing on Friday trading for $1.92 apiece.
Amid some broader market weakness today, shares are giving back some of those gains on Monday, with Nuix shares down 4.4% in afternoon trade at $1.83 each.
Which could make today an opportune time to buy shares in the resurgent ASX 300 stock, according to the analysts at Moelis Australia.
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Why did the ASX 300 stock rocket last week?
Nuix shares kicked off last week with a bang following the release of the company's half-year earnings results (H1 FY 2026).
Among the highlights, the company achieved a 15.2% year-on-year increase in revenue for the six months to $121.2 million. And statutory earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $26.5 million were up by 72.7%.
On the bottom line, the ASX 300 stock swung back into profit, reporting a statutory net profit after tax (NPAT) of $11.1 million, compared to a net loss of $10.4 million reported in H1 FY 2025.
"The first half results demonstrate further momentum in our business transformation, with ACV growth of 8.4% and particularly impressive Nuix Neo growth of 148%," Nuix CEO John Ruthven said on the day.
Why Moelis is bullish on Nuix shares
Commenting on Nuix's half year results, Moelis said:
New customer growth was a highlight of the 1H26 result. The release of new product features (including cloud and SaaS delivery) supports Nuix Neo's competitive position. 1H26 Annualised Contract Value ('ACV') enters 2H26 at levels close to the (lower end of) management's FY26e range. However, ACV growth from existing customers was anaemic.
Among the reasons Moelis believes the ASX 300 stock remains materially undervalued is the longer-term share price decline.
Despite last week's surge, Nuix shares remain down 48.8% since this time last year.
According to Moelis:
Nuix's share price has retraced significantly. Elevated investor uncertainty is associated with management changes and the threats from AI-enabled competition. Management outlined strategies and progress aimed at enhancing NXL's competitive position (investing in product) as well as expanding its sales capabilities.
The 1H26 result demonstrated Nuix can win new business. Management highlighted the progress underway on its product roadmap. However, Nuix must arrest the declining contract values from existing and renewing customers
Connecting the dots, the broker has a buy rating and a $3.10 price target on the ASX 300 stock.
That's more than 69% above the current Nuix share price.
