Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) shares are slipping today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) airline closed yesterday trading for $10.51. During the Tuesday lunch hour, shares are swapping hands for $10.43 apiece, down 0.8%.
For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.2% at this same time.
Today's underperformance flies against the trend set by the airline over the past two years.
Indeed, if you'd bought Qantas shares at market close on 23 February 2024, you'd be sitting on a capital gain of 96.8% today.
And that doesn't include the two fully franked dividends, totalling 52.8 cents a share, that Qantas paid out over the last 12 months. As you may know, FY 2025 saw the return of the Qantas dividend, which had been suspended since 2020 amid the global pandemic travel bans.
Qantas stock currently trades on a fully franked trailing dividend yield of 5.1%.
Which brings us back to our headline question.
Image source: Getty Images
What to expect from Qantas shares following Thursday's earnings results?
Qantas shares will be in sharp focus on Thursday, when the company releases its half year earnings results (H1 FY 2026).
As a quick recap, for the full year FY 2025, Qantas achieved an 8.6% year-on-year increase in revenue and other income to $23.82 billion. And the company reported a 28% lift in statutory profit after tax to $1.61 billion.
FY 2025 also saw Qantas complete on-market share buybacks totalling $431 million.
Commenting on what investors might expect for H1 FY 2026, Zavier Wong, market analyst at eToro, said, "Qantas enters its half-year result in a very different position to where it was two years ago."
According to Wong:
Under CEO Vanessa Hudson, the airline has stabilised operations, rebuilt some customer trust, and returned capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. The big question for this result is whether that momentum is holding.
And, as of early November, it looks like that momentum may indeed be holding.
Wong noted:
Qantas flagged in November that first-half trading was in line with expectations, which is reassuring heading into these results. Both Qantas and Jetstar are seeing stable demand across their respective segments, which is solid rather than spectacular.
The performance of the company's Jetstar division could also have a significant impact on how Qantas shares move on Thursday.
"Jetstar has been the group's earnings engine in recent years, posting record profits on the back of strong demand for low-fare travel," Wong said. "The group is also refocusing Jetstar on Australian operations following the exit of Jetstar Asia."
Atop the Jetstar results, Wong pointed to another key, and underappreciated, part of the business that could move Qantas shares on Thursday.
He said:
Qantas Loyalty remains one of the most underappreciated parts of the business, consistently delivering strong earnings growth and double-digit membership gains. It's not always the star of the show, but it's one of the best businesses in the group.
As for key areas to keep an eye on, Wong concluded, "Investors should watch closely for any dividend or buyback update, and for management's read on demand heading into the second half and Project Sunrise timelines."
