One of the best reasons to own Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares each year is usually the passive income payments in the form of dividends.
The ASX mining share recently reported its annual result for the 2025 financial year and it came with another large dividend for shareholders.
In this article, we're going to look at how large the upcoming dividend payments are projected to be, which could be quite sizeable. As a reminder, in the 2025 financial year, Rio Tinto's board of directors declared an annual dividend per share of US$4.02.
Let's see what's expected next of the ASX mining share.
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FY26
When looking at the FY25 figures, UBS said that the FY25 operating profit (EBITDA) and dividend (with a payout ratio of 60%) were in line with what market analysts were expecting, with a stronger contribution from copper and aluminium, while offsetting the softer contribution from iron ore.
UBS said that Rio Tinto's track record continues to improve, with the ASX mining share's guidance unchanged.
The broker noted that Rio Tinto is now focused on organic growth and cost savings.
UBS noted that Rio Tinto believes the iron ore price is weak due to soft fundamentals (with robust supply). There are expectations that high-cost miners will reduce production if the iron ore price trades at around US$90 per tonne. Rio Tinto's own higher-cost trucked tonnes could be curtailed if it "makes sense".
The African iron ore project Simandou is "ramping up broadly to plan", with the first shipment from the port in December 2025.
Rio Tinto thinks it can deliver volume growth of a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3% by 2030.
The ASX mining share thinks it can capitalise on productivity benefits – it has delivered $650 million by December 2025 (which will benefit FY26) and expects to materially increase this in 2026 and 2027. This is being driven by a leaner organisational structure with fewer management layers and a sharper focus on non-core asset closures (according to UBS), as well as a stronger discipline on efficiency (such as with contractors and maintenance).
UBS also said that the average unit of cost per copper tonne is on track for a CAGR of around 4% across the business between 2024 to 2030.
The broker predicts that Rio Tinto's dividend per share could climb by more than US$1 per share in FY26 to US$5.07 per share, along with a large jump in profitability.
FY27
Earnings are predicted to rise again in the 2027 financial year for Rio Tinto, which bodes well for potential dividend payments.
UBS predicts that the Rio Tinto dividend per share could climb to US$5.85 in the 2027 financial year.
FY28
The dividend may have peaked for the rest of the decade in the 2027 financial year, though the payout could settle at a similar sort of level.
UBS suggests the annual dividend payout could be US$5.81 per Rio Tinto share in FY28.
FY29
Owners of Rio Tinto shares could see another solid year in the 2029 financial year, though earnings and the dividend are forecast to reduce a little in the year.
The annual payout is projected to be US$5.65 in FY29, according to UBS.
FY30
The last year of this series of projections could be a strong one for shareholders and an improvement on FY29.
The forecast from UBS suggests that Rio Tinto could pay an annual dividend per share of US$5.76 in the 2030 financial year.
In terms of UBS' view on Rio Tinto shares, the broker said:
We maintain a Neutral rating and see the risk/reward as balanced with solid performance & volume growth offset by a muted iron ore price outlook.
It has a price target of $160 on the ASX mining share.
