Select Harvests Ltd (ASX: SHV) is an ASX consumer staples stock that has endured a tough 12 months.
Select Harvest shares fell 3.43% yesterday, closing at $3.94 per share.
Its share price is now down just over 20% year to date.
However a new report from Bell Potter suggests it could now be priced at an attractive entry point.
The new report from Bell Potter has come after the company's FY25 AGM.
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Response to the AGM
Select Harvests is an integrated grower, processor and marketer of almonds owning and operating farming and processing assets in Australia. It offers a vertically integrated model with core capabilities in farming, processing and marketing.
Yesterday, Bell Potter adjusted its outlook on this company following the AGM.
The broker anticipates softer near-term earnings driven mainly by currency and cost assumptions, while maintaining a positive long-term outlook.
It said cost pressures remain in areas such as bees, water and fertiliser, though FY26 water cost assumptions have been slightly reduced given lower year-to-date prices.
Volume forecasts remain unchanged at 29,000 tonnes for FY26, with management noting a fast bloom, successful bee procurement and no major frost damage, while industry forecasts point to a 7% year-on-year increase in Australia's 2026 crop.
As a result of updated pricing, FX and water assumptions, Bell Potter has reduced EBITDA forecasts by 7% in FY26 and 10% in FY27, with a modest 1% uplift in FY28.
Price target adjustment for this consumer staples stock
According to yesterday's report, the target price has been lowered to $5.30 per share (from $5.80).
However Bell Potter retained its buy recommendation, citing supportive global supply dynamics – including a smaller-than-expected Californian crop and weak snowpack – along with attractive valuation metrics (11.4x FY26e EPS, ~30% EPS CAGR FY25–28e) and a roughly 20% discount to market book value.
Bell Potter's price target of $5.30 indicates a potential upside of 34.5%.
We also see SHV trading at a ~20% discount to market-BV, with recent orchard transactions supportive of the market value as reported (~$4.97/sh).
Elsewhere, the average analysts rating via TradingView also indicates there is plenty of upside for this consumer staples stock.
TradingView has an average 12 month price target of $5.42 which indicates an upside of approximately 37.5%.
