Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) shares are trading in the green early on Thursday morning. At the time of writing the shares are up 1% to $22.20.
This morning's price movement means the supermarket giant's share price is now up 4% for the year-to-date and 7.6% over the past year.
It hasn't been a slow and steady increase though. The past 12 months were filled with wild volatility and many sharp share price climbs and crashes.
Coles shares rocketed 16% in August last year off the back of its FY25 financial results but then a slow and consistent decline saw the shares slump over 14% to early-January this year.
As Coles moved into 2026, the tide began turning, and positive sentiment saw the shares climb nearly 8% to mid-February before crashing again, this time just over 8%, and wiping out any 2026 gains, in early-March.
This time the catalyst was the company's FY26 results which revealed broadly strong growth figures, albeit below expectations, followed by its shares going ex-dividend.
As if that wasn't enough, the seesaw has continued. Coles shares pivoted again, jumping 11% higher in the last two weeks of March before cooling down into April.
Investors can't catch a break!
Image source: Getty Images
So if I invested $5,000 in Coles shares 10 days ago, what are they worth now?
On the 30th of March, Coles shares closed the day at $22.19 a piece. That's a tiny 0.023% below the current trading price at the time of writing.
It means $5,000 invested in the supermarket giant's shares 10 days ago is now worth $5,001.15! It's not a big upside, but its a gain nonetheless.
What can we expect next out of the shares?
It's been a very rocky past few months for Coles, and it could face some headwinds from renewed concerns about inflation this year.
But the stock is still very defensive and the business is well-positioned to perform well under pressure.
Its 2025 growth strategy has also paid off and its customer scores, sales growth, cost discipline and store execution are expected to remain solid.
According to TradingView data, analysts are mostly very bullish on the outlook for Coles shares this year. Out of 18 analysts, 15 have a buy or strong buy rating and another two rate the shares as a hold.
The average target price of $23.07, which implies a potential 4% upside at the time of writing. But some think the share price can climb over 12% to $24.90.
