Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC) shares have enjoyed sector tailwinds to start 2026.
The Australian coal mining company has seen its share price rise 55% in the last 12 months.
That includes a gain of 17% already in 2026 alone.
Whitehaven Coal develops and operates coal mines in Queensland and New South Wales. The company produces metallurgical and thermal coal. It operates mines, including open-cut and underground, located in the Gunnedah Coal Basin in New South Wales.
It has benefited from a surge in global commodity prices as the Australian energy sector has steamed ahead so far this year.
However after such a rapid rise, investors may be considering selling to cash in profits.
A new report from Ord Minnett has provided updated guidance.
Here is what the wealth and investment services firm had to say.
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Commodity tailwinds picking up
In a note out of Ord Minnett yesterday, it said Whitehaven Coal delivered a strong December-quarter result.
This included managed production of 8.7 million tonnes (Mt).
This exceeded Ord Minnett's expectations by approximately 10%.
Additionally, net debt declined faster than expected to $700 million. This was 6% below estimates.
Ord Minnett said the improving outlook for metallurgical coal provides a significant tailwind, and it forecasts a strong underlying free cash flow (FCF) outlook for CY26 of $590 million for an 8% yield.
This is based on a commodity price forecast of US$210 a tonne for premium low-volatile hard coking coal (PLV-HCC) in CY26.
Price target adjustment
Whitehaven Coal shares closed yesterday at $9.16 after a 3% gain.
Ord Minnett said after incorporating the December-quarter result, its target price increased 4% to $9.90.
From yesterday's closing price, this indicates a further upside of approximately 8%.
We reaffirm our Accumulate recommendation given the outlook for underlying FCF and shareholder returns, although we note Whitehaven is starting to screen less attractively against smaller peers that have greater metallurgical coal exposure.
What are other experts saying about Whitehaven Coal shares?
Sentiment appears mixed on Whitehaven Coal shares.
Late last month, the team at Bell Potter placed a sell recommendation on the coal miner.
This was along with a price target of $8.40, which is slightly below current levels.
Bell Potter said near-term output from Queensland is expected to be disrupted by heavy rainfall and Cyclone Koji.
The broker also warned metallurgical coal prices could ease from current elevated levels.
Elsewhere, target prices are hovering between $8.40 and $9.90, with the most common rating being a hold.
