Now could be the time to sell the S&P/ASX 200 index (ASX: XJO) share in this article.
That's because the team at Bell Potter has just put a sell rating on its shares and is warning of significant downside potential.
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Which ASX 200 share?
The share in question is coal miner New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC).
Bell Potter notes that New Hope released its results this month and delivered a profit below expectations. It said:
Earlier this week, NHC reported FY26 underlying EBITDA of $514m (pre-reported) and statutory NPAT of $161m (BP est. $183m), below our estimates with higher finance expenses. In FY26, NHC realised an average price of A$145/t and average group FOB cash cost (excluding royalties) A$89/t (up 8% YoY) for an underlying margin of A$45/t, down 30% YoY with lower realised thermal coal prices.
Though, one positive was that the ASX 200 share is paying a much larger than expected dividend despite the profit weakness. Bell Potter adds:
Operating cash flow was $564m and capex $193m for free cash flow $403m. A 30cps fully franked final dividend was declared (BPe 14cps, VA consensus 15cps), equating to $253m or 157% of statutory NPAT. At 31 July 2026, NHC had cash and liquid investments of $778m and debt (including leases) of $447m, for net cash of $332m. FY27 guidance was not released; NHC typically publish initial guidance with the October quarterly production report scheduled for November 2026.
Downgraded to sell
According to the note, Bell Potter has downgraded the ASX 200 share to a sell rating (from hold) with a $5.00 price target.
Based on its current share price of $6.38, this implies potential downside of almost 22% for investors over the next 12 months.
Commenting on the downgrade, the broker said:
We have downgraded our NHC recommendation to Sell on recent share price appreciation. Our $5.00/sh Target Price already incorporates a 14% premium to our sum-of-the-parts valuation, reflecting NHC's leverage to global energy security themes amplified by recent geopolitical tensions. We expect energy markets will normalise over the near-term. Beyond the ramp-up of New Acland Stage 3, NHC has a limited organic production growth pipeline, and we expect earnings will peak in FY27. We expect NHC may participate in further industry consolidation as an acquirer.
Overall, this could make it worth keeping your powder dry for the time being and waiting for a better entry point down the line.
