Owning Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares could come with steady earnings growth in the next few years, according to the projections from leading experts.
Experts regularly describe the ASX bank share as expensive. But, the CBA share price has dropped more than 10% in the past six months, as the chart below shows.
While the CBA share price does have a higher price/earnings (P/E) ratio than other ASX bank shares, it has an impressive record of regularly increasing earnings.
Let's take a look at where earnings are expected to go in the coming years.
Image source: Getty Images
FY26
The last update investors saw from the ASX bank share was the first quarter of FY26, which saw $2.6 billion of cash net profit, representing a year-over-year increase of 2%.
The update saw CBA's business lending grow by 10% year-over-year, household deposits grow by 9.5% year-over-year and home lending grow by 6.1%. However, operating expenses rose by 4% (excluding restructuring and notable items) because of wage and IT vendor inflation.
CBA's underlying net interest margin (NIM) slightly dropped because of deposit switching, competition and the lower cash rate environment.
Commonwealth Bank's loan impairment expense of $220 million, with collective and individual provisions being broadly flat. Portfolio credit quality remained "sound" with lower consumer arrears and corporate troublesome and non-performing exposures.
Broker UBS said that the result was broadly in line with expectations for the first half of FY26. However, the increase in costs (6.1% quarter-over-quarter) was "somewhat surprising", even excluding the notable items. It was also surprising to UBS that the CET1 ratio declined to 11.75%, compared to market expectations of 12.3%.
Based on the above analysis, the broker UBS has forecast that CBA could produce $10.75 billion of net profit in FY26.
FY27
Commonwealth Bank's net profit is expected to rise in the 2027 financial year, but the earnings growth rate is expected to be lower.
UBS is expecting the business to deliver net profit of $10.9 billion, which would be a rise of around $100 million.
FY28
The 2028 financial year could be another period of growth if UBS' projections come true.
UBS expects CBA to achieve net profit of $11.25 billion, which would be a rise of around $370 million.
FY29
Of the years we've looked at, the 2029 financial year could see the biggest increase of earnings.
CBA is projected by UBS to see net profit of around $11.8 billion, which would be a year-over-year increase of approximately $350 million.
Therefore, UBS is projecting that CBA's earnings could climb by 10% between FY26 and FY29, which isn't exactly massive growth.
When the CBA share price was trading at $175, UBS thought it "would appear perfection is implicitly expected". UBS has a sell rating on the business, with a CBA share price target of $125, implying a significant potential decline during 2026.
