Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC) shares have been on a strong run over the last 12 months.
The ASX energy stock climbed almost 3% higher yesterday alongside the release of its quarterly report.
That takes its growth to 21% in 2026 alone and more than 55% in the last 12 months.
The company is Australia's largest independent coal producer and the leading coal producer in North West New South Wales.
Yesterday, the company reported managed ROM coal production of 11.0 million tonnes for the December quarter.
This was up 21% on the prior period, and equity sales of 7.0 million tonnes, rose 18% quarter-on-quarter.
But it isn't all good news for Whitehaven Coal shares.
A new report from Bell Potter suggests the stock may have peaked, with the broker changing its recommendation to a sell.
Here's what the broker had to say.
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Met coal prices to ease
While Bell Potter did acknowledge the strong quarter, the broker notes that Whitehaven Coal's production and sales are tracking in the upper half of FY26 guidance, although the midpoints imply a softer performance in the second half.
It said near-term output from Queensland is expected to be disrupted by heavy rainfall and Cyclone Koji. Additionally, metallurgical coal prices are likely to ease from current elevated levels as weather conditions normalise and supply chains in the Bowen Basin recover.
Thermal coal prices at Newcastle remain weak, and a higher share of Narrabri sales in the mix is expected to drag New South Wales realised prices below the gC NEWC benchmark, as already seen in 2Q FY26.
As a result, Bell Potter has revised EPS forecasts down by 12% for FY26 and 2% for FY27, with no change beyond that.
Sell recommendation for Whitehaven Coal shares
Whitehaven Coal shares closed trading yesterday at $9.46 after a strong gain.
The broker sees this as too high, and has adjusted its recommendation to a sell (previously hold).
Bell Potter has a price target of $8.40.
This indicates a downside of 11.21%.
We move to a Sell recommendation with strong recent share price performance. In the medium term, WHC are positioned to capitalise when coal markets sustainably improve with a diversified portfolio of assets in Queensland and New South Wales and strong organic growth optionality.
We have a positive long term met coal outlook, driven by constrained supply and increased demand from steel producers reliant on seaborne met coal (i.e. India).
