The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) stock Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) is a strong contender for providing investors with good passive income. It'd be one of the ASX blue-chip shares I'd look at for dividends.
The owner of Bunnings, Kmart, Officeworks, Priceline, and more has a stated goal to increase its payouts to shareholders. On the company's website, the business says:
With a focus on generating strong cash flows and maintaining balance sheet strength, the group aims to deliver satisfactory returns to shareholders through improving returns on invested capital.
As well as share price appreciation, Wesfarmers seeks to grow dividends over time commensurate with performance in earnings and cash flow.
Dependent upon circumstances, capital management decisions may also be taken from time to time where this activity is in shareholders' interests.
With that intention in mind, I think it's a strong opportunity for income (and total) returns. Let's look at how it could deliver $1,000 of annual passive income in 2026 for an investor.
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Passive income target for the ASX 200 stock
Wesfarmers has been steadily growing its dividend payout each year since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Not many of the ASX 200's blue-chip stocks have managed to deliver that level of consistent performance for investors.
The current forecast on CommSec suggests the business could pay an annual dividend per share of $2.14 in FY26. To receive $1,000 in cash dividends over a year, an investor would need to own 468 Wesfarmers shares.
But if we include the income bonus from franking credits as part of the overall annual passive income, an investor would only need to own 328 Wesfarmers shares.
How likely is dividend growth for owners of Wesfarmers shares?
While the business isn't guaranteed to deliver growth, analysts are projecting a sizeable increase for the company in FY27.
According to CommSec's projection, the company is forecast to pay an annual dividend per share of $2.33 in FY27, representing a year-over-year increase of approximately 9%.
Pleasingly, the projections suggest the ASX 200 stock's earnings per share (EPS) will rise to around $2.75 in FY27, which would help fund a dividend payout ratio of 84.8%.
I think it's quite likely the company will deliver rising earnings in FY27, driven by the strength and ongoing sales growth of its Kmart and Bunnings businesses, which have very high returns on capital (ROC).
Plus, with the rapid rise of the lithium price in recent months, the earnings outlook for the lithium business is very promising. The project's development cash costs will soon stop, and the company can start generating good earnings, which seems like they will be much stronger than the market was expecting this time last year.
